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Jamie's Pick: 07/19/12

Jamie's Pick: 07/19/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

The AUDUSD has reached and slightly exceeded the May high (10429) and channel resistance that defines the move over the last month. Still, tops are nearly impossible to spot in real time but the simplest of guidelines can save you from disaster. Large degree turns are much more likely to occur early in the month. The AUDUSD broke through its opening range for July yesterday to the upside, which puts shorts in a precarious position. Make no mistake, the AUDUSD is much closer to an important top than bottom but I don’t want to sit through a move into 10600, which is possible, before the turn. Support is now 10360/80. Near term wave structure suggests a dip there before a move to another high and perhaps a test of the late April high at 10473. A drop below the early July high at 10330 would be needed for me to consider shorting before August.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.