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Forex Strategy: Stay Short EUR/SEK

Forex Strategy: Stay Short EUR/SEK

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

I sold EURSEK at 8.7315 after prices completed a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at channel and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. I am expecting Risksbank to switch to a neutral policy stance after December’s rate cut while the ECB begins easing in 2013 as falling “PIIGS” bond yields mark normalization of monetary policy transmission. Prices have staged a rebound and are now showing a Shooting Star candlestick below rising channel support-turned-resistance at 8.6284, hinting renewed weakness is ahead. I will wait for confirmation of reversal on a close below 8.5898 to add to the position. My near-term objective is 8.4994.

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