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Trading Outlook for USD, Euro, Cross-rates, Gold & More

Trading Outlook for USD, Euro, Cross-rates, Gold & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Join Paul on Friday at 9:30 GMT for an NFP-preview and chart set-ups, for details please see the Webinar Calendar.

In this webinar, we took a close look at where the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading, as it is currently dropping vigorously into an important long-term support zone between ~93/92. The drop in recent weeks has held the most amount of momentum since DXY topped to begin the year - an exhaustion low could be near.

EURUSD (~57% of DXY) is trading very close to a low created in 2010 and not too far below another major low in 2012. While not deemed time just yet to take the other side of the trend, we could soon be upon the time to do so. We took a look at the 4-hr chart and until there is a clear break in the clean series of higher highs and higher lows, momentum still remains in favor of the bulls.

GBPUSD is trading up out of an ascending wedge and could close in soon on our eyed target zone of 13400/500. The ‘Super Thursday’ BoE meeting tomorrow could be significant to this outlook. For live coverage of the event, sign up here.

Another drop lower in USDCAD could put it on an important trend-line extending higher from a low created in September 2012. We’ll be watching how price action reacts at that juncture should it trade down there.

We took a look at a few cross-rates including but not limited to – EURAUD, EURNZD, EURJPY, GBPAUD, and GBPNZD. On the EM-front, we looked at USDMXN as it trades into a confluence of resistance.

Check out the Q3 Forecasts for our take on where markets are heading.

Gold already posted a bearish candle on the daily yesterday at an important area around the 2011 trend-line, while silver is in the process of putting in a bearish reversal off resistance and possibly another significant lower high. Precious metals at key resistance and the US dollar at support could be a potent mixture for lower prices.

Crude oil turned down off resistance we examined in yesterday’s webinar. It looks headed for lower prices, but will need a little more time before we can gain better clarity on whether it will be a turning point akin to ones we’ve seen so far this year.

Indices remain a tough proposition, with a mixed bag. The DAX is flirting with the neckline of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, while the S&P 500 tries to hold onto elevated levels.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.