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  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
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  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zxRWoNR4lS https://t.co/bXTx0TSRmU
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  • Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias. Get your weekly gold technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/HaEe3i4Sug https://t.co/LsARS2mnFI
  • Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges. Get your weekly GBP forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/IRO7a6Jv8J https://t.co/4LxWz7sOVF
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AXKeEsin95
Gold & Silver Prices at a Critical Juncture, Crude Oil Too

Gold & Silver Prices at a Critical Juncture, Crude Oil Too

Paul Robinson, Strategist

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Today, we took a look at the long and short-term positioning of precious metals. Gold is making a serious attempt to trade above the 2011 trend-line which has been a big focus for over a year now. It’s above now, but still needs a convincing weekly or monthly close above to turn the longer-term trend higher. A rally above 1296 would go a long way towards turning the tides. For now, it is at risk of turning lower from here given where it is and the general chart structure on the daily over the past few months. Silver is at an interesting juncture here as well, and on a turn lower the 2003 trend-line below 15 remains the target.

The one-month inverse correlation between the US dollar and precious metals is about as close to -1 as it can get, and with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading down into long-term support we could see it exert downward pressure should we soon see a rebound. With the correlation in mind, though, don’t become overly married to the relationship as it is likely to revert a bit from here given how extreme it has become. So, while generally the two will trade opposite, it may not do-so with to the same degree as recently.

Crude oil has exceeded upside expectations and if the see-saw price action we’ve seen in months past is to continue with a generally negative bias, it will need to turn lower very soon. There is a confluence of resistance with a trend-line and upper parallel converging. Should crude rally up into the mid-51s, then it will be testing a significant area of resistance, and while it would likely pull back initially it could start to tilt the overall chart higher.

Indices are a tough spot right now. The primary focus is on the bearish H&S formation in the DAX. The Nikkei, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 are all indices we watch but are staying away from for now. The S&P 500 has a short-term bearish formation on the hourly which could lead to a drop into support.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

Check out the Q3 Forecasts for our take on where markets are heading.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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