Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Oil Price Technical Forecast: Crude Surges Off Support- WTI Levels

Oil Price Technical Forecast: Crude Surges Off Support- WTI Levels

What's on this page

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

  • Crude Oil updated technical trade levels – Weekly Chart
  • WTIrebounds off key support pivot– evidence ofbear-market rebound or trend resumption?
  • New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Oil-Beginners Guide

Crude oil prices surged more than 5% since the start of the week with WTI rebounding of a critical support pivot we’ve been tracking for months now- is the correction over? These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly technical chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price technical setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - USOil Trade Outlook - CL Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Crude Oil Weekly Technical Forecast we noted that, “Heading into the August open the focus remains on confirming a potential exhaustion low off one of these levels in the weeks ahead IF the broader multi-year oil uptrend is to remain viable.” The area in focus was 85.61-88.01- a region defined by the 2013 low, the 100% extension of the March decline and the 61.8.% retracement of the November advance. WTI is registered a low at 87 last week before rebounding sharply with oil rallying nearly 5% this week – is a near-term low in place?

While it’s too early to ascertain, the battle-lines are clear heading into weekly close. Initial weekly resistance stands at 95 backed by the median-line / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June decline at 101 - broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the June high-week reversal close / 61.8% retracement at 109.65-110. Caution: a break below this critical support pivot would pose significant downside risk with such a scenario exposing the 2018 high / 2011 low / objective yearly open at 75-76.87.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest Crude Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Oil prices have rebounded of a critical support pivot and we’re looking for continued inflection off this mark for guidance. While we cannot rule out another test of the 2020/2021 uptrend, the focus is on validating a medium-term low in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the monthly low-day close at 88.52 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the objective monthly open at 98.27 needed to clear the way for a larger advance. Review my latest Crude Oil Short-term Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term WTI technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - USOil Retail Positioning - CL Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +2.05 (67.18% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are5.29% lower than yesterday and 10.05% lower from last week
  • Short positions are11.13% higher than yesterday and 26.32% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests crude oil prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current WTI price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Oil - US Crude Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% 1% 2%
Weekly 26% -33% 4%
Learn how shifts in Oil retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

Active Weekly Technical Charts

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Learn how to Trade with Confidence - Free Trading Guide
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.