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Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Breakout Imminent

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Breakout Imminent

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • USD/CAD carves August opening-range just below resistance- breakout pending
  • Support 1.2784, 1.2716, 1.2640 (critical) – Resistance 1.2975-1.3023 (key), 1.3230, 1.3370
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The Canadian Dollar offensive against the US Dollar resumed this week with USD/CAD plummeting more than 0.6% into the weekly open. The move keeps price within a well-defined monthly opening-range and while we remained poised for the breakout, the technical threat remains for a test of uptrend support before resumption of the broader US Dollar rally. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was, “testing a key resistance pivot for third time here and once again the immediate long-bias may be vulnerable while below.” Price turned from key resistance at 1.2975-1.3023 that week with the decline marking an outside-weekly reversal last week off support at the June low-week close at 1.2784. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the August opening-range for guidance with the threat remaining for a deeper correction within the broader uptrend.

A break lower from here would expose key support objectives at the 52-week moving average / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1.2709/16 and the lower parallel / objective yearly open at ~1.2640- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Critical resistance remains at the median-line where the objective 2020 yearly open converges on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 decline around 1.2975-1.3023- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards 1.3230.

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Bottom line: USD/CAD has carved a well-defined monthly opening-range between key technical levels and we’re looking for the breakout. From at trading standpoint, the focus is on 1.2784-1.3023 for medium-term guidance – ultimately a broader pullback may offer more favorable opportunities closer to support with a breach /close above the median-line needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Shor-term Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - USDCAD Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.66 (62.42% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are21.41% higher than yesterday and 8.39% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 17.65% lower than yesterday and 22.87% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -17% 22% 7%
Weekly -11% 4% -1%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
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US / Canada Economic Calendar

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Weekly Event Risk - Loonie Data Releases - US Inflation

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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