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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Blow-off to Offer Reset- Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Blow-off to Offer Reset- Loonie Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD surges into weekly open- three day rally exhausts post-BoC
  • Risk for inflection into key near-term support 1.2595– Resistance 1.2775, 1.2822

The Canadian Dollar started the week off on the defensive with USD/CAD surging more than 2.1% off the monthly lows. The post-BoC blow-off is in focus and we’re looking for possible price inflection on this pullback into the close of the week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted the recent USD/CAD plunge while noting to, “be on the lookout for topside exhaustion ahead of the 1.28-handle on recoveries IF price is indeed heading lower with a larger correction likely to offer more favorable entries closer to uptrend support.” The sell-off carried over into the September open with price plummeting nearly 3.5% off the yearly high before rebounding just ahead of the 50% retracement of the yearly range. A three-day rally registered a high at 1.2762 yesterday before exhausting on the heels of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision- is a near-term high in place?

Monthly open support rests at 1.2614 backed closely by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September opening-range at 1.2596- look for downside exhaustion ahead of this threshold IF price is heading higher with a topside breach exposing subsequent resistance objectives at 1.2775, the high-day close at 1.2822 and the January highs at 1.2881.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD surging into the weekly open with price faltering around the objective 2021 yearly open at 1.2713. Looking for inflection into the 1.26-handle IF reached – a break lower would risk a larger correction towards weekly open support at 1.2525 and a more significant technical confluence at 1.2478/80.

Bottom line: The USD/CAD recovery has exhausted just ahead of Fibonacci resistance post-BoC and the risk remains for a deeper pullback on the back of this seemingly clear five-wave advance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 1.26- area of interest for possible exhaustion low / price inflection. Ultimately a breach / close above the median-line is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.57 (61.02% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are9.51% lower than yesterday and 31.23% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.07% higher than yesterday and 29.86% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.


Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Releases

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.