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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Bulls at Risk into NFP- XAU Breakout Levels

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Bulls at Risk into NFP- XAU Breakout Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

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Gold prices are off fractionally this week with XAU/USD down just 0.32% to trade at 1811 in early US trade on Thursday. Price has continued to hold a tight weekly range and heading into tomorrow’s highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll report, the focus is on a possible near-term breakout. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into September. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In last week’s Gold Price Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had tuned just ahead of a critical resistance ranges at 1825/29- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June decline and the July high-day close. Since then, gold has continued to contract just below with the a well-defined weekly opening-range in view heading into tomorrow’s NFP release. Initial daily support eyed at the 2012 high at 1795 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 38.2% retracement at 1768.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within an ascending channel formation with the weekly opening-range preserved just below critical resistance at 1825/29- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing the 2021 high-week close at 1849 and the 78.6% retracement at 1865.

Bottom line: Gold is poised for a near-term breakout heading into the close of the week with the immediate focus on a break of the weekly opening-range for guidance- major event risk on tap tomorrow. From at trading standpoint, the risk remains for a pullback while below 1825/29 – look for downside exhaustion ahead of 1768 in the event of a correction with a breach / close higher needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.42 (70.78% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are 1.03% higher than yesterday and 4.12% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.41% higher than yesterday and 4.94% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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