Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Rebound Faces First Test

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Rebound Faces First Test

What's on this page

British Pound Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Weekly Chart
  • GBP/USD two-week rebound off uptrend support eyes initial resistance targets
  • Weekly resistance 1.2650, 1.2754(key), 1.2956 – Support 1.2351, 1.2261(critical), 1.2166
Advertisement

A reversal off long-term uptrend support in the British Pound has fueled a rally of more than 4.1% off the yearly lows. The two-week rally takes GBP/USD into initial resistance with the a major technical confluence just higher- we’re on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion heading into the June open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more.

British Pound Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

British Pound Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly - Sterling Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last British PoundWeekly Technical Forecast we noted that the GBP/USD, “plunge may be vulnerable in the days ahead as a multi-week decline approaches longer-term technical support.” Specifically, “the June 2020 lows at 1.2252 and the May low-week close at 1.2166- both levels of interests for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.” Sterling registered a low at 1.2156 in the following days before reversing sharply higher with a two-week advance taking GBP/USD into the first level of resistance here at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.2650.

A more significant resistance zone is eyed at the 2018 low-week close / 2019 yearly open at 1.2754- a breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to shift the focus towards the 38.2% retracement at 1.2956. Initial weekly support now 1.2351 with a break / weekly close below the yearly low-week close at 1.2261 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price towards 1.2166 and the next major technical confluence at 1.1950-1.2021.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom Line: The British Pound rebound may have further upside potential here but we’re on the lookout for possible price inflection on a stretch towards 1.2754 IF reached. From a trading standpoint, look for an exhaustion high heading into the June open – ultimately, losses should be governed by the yearly 1.2261 IF in fact a more significant low was registered this month. I’ll publish an updated Sterling Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels. Stay tuned!

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly GBP/USD Price Forecast
Get My Guide

British Pound Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart

British Pound Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - Sterling Retail Positioning - Cable Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.94 (65.95% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 0.23% lower than yesterday and 4.09% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 4.73% higher than yesterday and 18.38% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
GBP/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -2% -11% -5%
Weekly 0% 1% 1%
Learn how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

UK / US Economic Calendar

UK / US Economic Calendar - GBP/USD Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES