News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Crude Oil Technical Forecast: Oil Coil Continues- WTI Breakout Levels

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: Oil Coil Continues- WTI Breakout Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

Advertisement

Oil prices plunged more than 6% this week with WTI continuing to contract within massive consolidation range. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the near-term focus is on a breakout for guidance with the bulls looking to validate a low in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price technical setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - CL Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Crude Oil Technical Forecast we noted that WTI was, “searching for a low on this pullback and while the broader outlook remains constructive, near-term the threat is for a deeper flush-out here.” A full-month later and prices have continued to coil just above the 50% retracement of the December advance at 95.91- we’re on the lookout for a breakout in the weeks ahead as this range tightens.

Weekly resistance stands at 114.80-115.47 – a region defined by the yearly high-close, the 2011 high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to validate resumption of the broader uptrend back towards the 2008 high-week close at 129.29 and the record high close / 2008 high at 145.29-146.73. A break below weekly support at 95.91 would open the possibility for a larger correction with such a scenario keeping the focus on 85.61-88.01 – even if this is just a simple correction, a dip towards 80.70 (two-equal legs off the highs) would still keep the broader uptrend viable.

Bottom line: Oil prices in contraction just above former slope resistance, now support. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a breakout of this range for guidance- ultimately 88 & 80.70 remain areas of interest for downside exhaustion IF reached with a breach / close above 115.47 ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Retail Positioning - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +1.49 (59.80% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are3.72% higher than yesterday and 3.48% higher from last week
  • Short positions are30.10% higher than yesterday and 16.37% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

---

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES