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Euro Eyes 1.2500, Australian Dollar Continues To Retrace June Rally

Euro Eyes 1.2500, Australian Dollar Continues To Retrace June Rally

2010-07-01 15:56:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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The Euro extended the rally from the previous day and remains the best performing currency against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, but the advance appears to be finding psychological resistance ahead of 1.2500 as price action appears to be stalling at a high of 1.2484. The EUR/USD is a whopping 240+pips higher from the open after moving 197% of its daily ATR, and the intraday rally certainly looks to be overdone as the 30-minute RSI climbs to a high of 84. As a result, euro-dollar price action may fall back later today and fill-in the gap from the 240-SMA at 1.2283, but the single-currency could face choppy price action ahead of the holiday weekend as U.S. non-farm payrolls are forecasted to contract for the first time in six-months. However, as Moody’s puts Spain’s AAA credit rating under review, the uncertainties surrounding the Euro-Zone could weigh on the exchange rate going forward as the governments operating under the single-currency struggle to manage their public finances.

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The Australian dollar continued to retrace the advance from June and tumbled to a low of 0.8316 follow the shift in market sentiment, and the high-yielding currency may trend lower going into the end of the week as investors scale back their appetite for risk. The AUD/USD is nearly 20pips lower on the day after moving 85% of its average true range, but the rebound in the 30-minute RSI could push the exchange rate towards the 120-SMA at 0.8477as price action holds above 0.8300. At the same time, market participants speculate the Reserve Bank of Australian to maintain a wait-and-see approach going into the second-half of the year, the drop in interest rate expectations may continue to drag on the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future policy.

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Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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