Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Hang Seng, US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, Fed Hike, Ukraine
On Wall Street, sentiment soured this past week following another strong inflation print as February’s CPI gauge clocked in at 7.9% y/y. With prices continuing to climb at 40-year highs, boosting hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy bets, futures tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%, 3.02% and 3.85% respectively over the past 5 trading sessions.
This meant that the tech-heavy Nasdaq entered a bear market, which is a correction of more than 20% from a peak. Things were looking better in Europe though. The DAX 40 and FTSE 100 gained 4.07% and 2.41% respectively. Earlier in the week, prospects of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia helped to boost risk appetite.
However, hopes of geopolitical tensions easing deteriorated into the end of the week. Commentary from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba noted that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was undermining efforts to alleviate tensions. US President Joe Biden also urged allies to suspend normal trade relations with Russia.
Equity markets looked the worst in the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese regulatory woes and US de-listing concerns played a key role. The Hang Seng Tech Index plummeted over 10 percent as shares like Alibaba, Tencent and Didi declined 13.81%, 11.17% and 53% respectively. All of this risk aversion induced demand for safety, boosting the US Dollar.
Gold prices surged to start off the week, but a rising Greenback and Treasury yields sapped the yellow metal’s appeal into the weekend. WTI crude oil prices also weakened as bets of surging prices boosted expectations of a global growth slowdown, weighing on some demand prospects. Commodity prices remain broadly on the advance though.
All eyes remain glued to ongoing Ukraine tensions as the Fed rate decision nears next week. The central bank is expected to begin its tightening cycle with a 25-basis point rate hike. Quantitative tightening may follow soon after. Other notable event risk next week include the Bank of England and Bank of Japan rate decisions. What else is in store for markets in the week ahead?
US DOLLAR WEEKLY PERFORMANCE AGAINST CURRENCIES AND GOLD
The S&P 500 index may continue to fall amid a heightened Ukraine crisis as stagflation fears deepen. US CPI hit a fresh 40-year high of 7.9%, spurring concerns that the Fed will tighten more aggressively.
The claw back from Euro bulls this week may be fleeting as markets prepare for a Fed rate hike next week.
Bitcoin is finding a couple of levels of resistance difficult to break, leaving it vulnerable to further losses.
Brent remains volatile as a wave of oil sanctions gain momentum. Upside risks remain as OPEC continues to miss output targets and additional supply measures stall
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP Risk Remains Lower Ahead of Fed & BoEBoE to stick with step by step 25bps hike, meanwhile, Fed may offer a hawkish surprise.
Gold prices eye FOMC but the Fed may take a “wait and see” approach amid the war-induced volatility and uncertainty. Bullion’s near-term direction relies upon the on-the-ground situation in Ukraine this week.
GBP/USD could fall further in the near-term amid negative market sentiment and the lack of significant support zones around current levels that may act as an inflection point for price action.
The Canadian Dollar is currently trading higher against its major counterparts as price action continues to threaten key technical levels
Oil prices may have exhausted this week with WTI marking the largest weekly loss since November. The technical trade levels that matter on the Crude weekly chart.
Recent developments in the RSI indicate a near-term pullback in the price of gold as the oscillator pushes below 70 to reflect a textbook sell signal.
It was a hard sell for stocks to start the week and to end it, but next week brings the Fed and they may not have much flexibility with inflation as commodity prices continue to run.
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