We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The latest UK General Election opinion polls continue to show the Conservative Party holding a strong lead over Labour and point to Boris Johnson winning a working majority in Parliament. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qF04EOUWkI https://t.co/LNl4bXbnpp
  • Recent polls have put Conservatives ahead of Labour and given a boost to $GBP. Get your #Brexit update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/l2n53C0cYY https://t.co/oTWfXkaDDt
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/xeromAGqqx
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/rCOG78QQ2M
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/JmZxckVHdS
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY #UKelection2019 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/07/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-GBPCAD-Outlook-as-UK-Election-Looms.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/iuILHYczJ7
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/WlEFlluGfZ #tradingstyle https://t.co/TkMtJQKatx
  • By issuing debt denominated in $USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/xV9urXXf48
  • What are some risk trading management techniques? Find out: https://t.co/RShdlDz9RA #tradingstyle https://t.co/M3ASPIHAep
GBP Fundamental Forecast: Brexit Meaningful Vote - Third Time Lucky?

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Brexit Meaningful Vote - Third Time Lucky?

2019-03-16 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:
GBP Chart

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points: Brexit and the Bank of England

  • PM May is running out of options as Brexit nears.
  • Bank of England will leave policy unchanged but update on Brexit preparations.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

As we write, the UK remains set to leave the EU in two weeks’ time after the government lost the second Meaningful Vote on Tuesday by another sizeable majority of 249 votes. The PM has promised a third and final vote on her Withdrawal Bill – expected on Tuesday March 19 – and is likely to lose that vote as well. If this is the case, the UK will apply to the EU for an extension of Article 50. It is this potential extension of Brexit that is currently propping up Sterling at its current levels as investors believe that a second referendum or a soft Brexit become more likely. The UK will still legally leave the EU by default on March 29 unless an extension is agreed. What is becoming more likely though is that the EU will only grant an extension if a clear and workable deal is presented to them, or if the UK promises a second referendum. PM May is also coming under increasing pressure from within her party to move aside, although looks unlikely in the short-term.

While Sterling remains resilient, next week will see increased volatility as the clock winds down leaving GBP at risk of a sharp sell-off if no agreement on an extension is agreed.

The Bank of England’s latest policy announcement on Thursday will see all monetary settings left unchanged as Brexit dominates forward planning. BoE governor Carney will again update on the bank’s readiness for anything that happens post-March 29. Before this meeting, the latest UK jobs and wages data will be released on Tuesday, one day before the inflation numbers are announced.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD currently is benefitting from a small bid around the 1.3200, which if broken leaves 1.3177 as the next step down. Below here the 200-day moving average at 1.2940 guards the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1.2894. According to the RSI indicator, GBPUSD is neither overbought or oversold, while IG client sentiment highlights net-long and net-short positions are very evenly balanced. Overall however, the chart remains positive, suggesting higher prices ahead.

Looking for a technical perspective on the British Pound? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – March 15, 2019)

GBPUSD Chart

IG Client Sentiment data show 50.6% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest that GBPUSD prices may fall. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get apositive GBPUSD trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Forecast -Australian Dollar Could Slide Again If RBA Speakers Stay Dovish

Crude Oil Forecast -Crude Oil Price Outlook Clouded by OPEC Meeting, Fed Rate Decision

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.