We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • As we head into next week, Cable is continuing to digest the massive leg higher last month, which at some point soon could mean another surge. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/LJ42YhDe3X https://t.co/5hGwhGBpLB
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/urMnUCq4fn
  • RT @markets: White-hot pot stocks have flamed out in spectacular fashion https://t.co/3GsVsRyZaZ
  • What is the best time to trade #forex? Find out: https://t.co/M9R46r5ewa #tradingstyle https://t.co/gJ1QDrox67
  • #Gold prices may be given a tailwind from the FOMC minutes and escalating trade war risks if they fuel demand for anti-fiat assets amid expectations of additional Fed easing. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/OJ7WUY9W7E $gld https://t.co/kBp3opzptm
  • Why should you set trading goals? How can it help regardless of what your #tradingstyle is? Find out: https://t.co/AYdD7ODlv1 https://t.co/G0ftVurNNN
  • Manning the penalty box today...i hope there aren't too many visitors https://t.co/1y81Li7laL
  • Do you think your #tradingstyle is of a #FOMO trader? Find out how you can turn that to #JOMO? Find out: https://t.co/79Q4pYdVEd https://t.co/S82AOd5AeP
  • What are the truths and lies of #forex trading regardless of your #tradingstyle here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr https://t.co/xJ808KvLxr
  • RT @PaulMDomenick: “But Paul, I don’t have a mentor!! Really? •Do you have YouTube? You have a mentor! •Do you have a bookstore? You hav…
Australian Dollar Could Slide Again If RBA Speakers Stay Dovish

Australian Dollar Could Slide Again If RBA Speakers Stay Dovish

2019-03-15 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
AUD Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • The coming week brings plentiful opportunities to gauge thinking at the Reserve Bank of Australia
  • Recent history suggests that this may not be good news for Aussie bulls
  • Look out for signs of trade settlement between the US and China though

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar endured a somewhat calmer time last week than it has for much of this young year.

Admittedly-feeble official Gross Domestic Product numbers were probably the domestic focus. However, they were for the final quarter of 2018 and investors have had plenty of more current data to chew over since then, not that much of it has been particularly rosy.

In any event the currency didn’t suffer the sort of knocks it had to endure last month when the Reserve Bank of Australia admitted that record low interest rates could yet fall further, and when it made big cuts to its own growth and inflation forecasts.

The coming week will bring the minutes of the last RBA monetary policy meeting and speeches from two of its members. Deputy Governor Guy Debelle and Assistant Governor Michael Bullock will both be talking.

Given the relatively ‘dovish’ monetary policy tone of RBA speakers these days, it seems unlikely that any of these events will be especially upbeat for the Australian Dollar. Any reminders that the RBA welcomes a weaker currency or leans towards a neutral view of the likely interest rate path, could see the Aussie slip further.

Some key economic data are also due, though, of which official employment numbers will be the most important. The labor market is one of Australia’s few unarguable economic success stories, with strong job creation holding up remarkably well even as other indicators wilt. If this trend endures, Aussie bulls could well jump at it, but signs of weakness even here would probably be quite damaging to their cause.

Purchasing Managers Indexes for March will also be released. The previous month’s PMI showed the service sector in the doldrums while manufacturing continued to expand. Traders can probably expect a short-lived AUD/USD move on these data but little more given their modest bearing on inflation and, therefore, RBA policy.

All up this looks like a week when the overall lack of interest-rate support could weigh on the currency again, so it’s a bearish call. Assuming no outlandish economic weakness, however, there seems little reason to suppose that falls will be heavy, even so. Look out for trade-settlement headlines between the US and China too. Hints of progress here will very likely see AUD/USD catch a bid.

Looking for a technical perspective on the Australian Dollar? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.


Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.