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Sterling Weekly Technical Outlook: Charts Highlight Bullish GBP Bias

Sterling Weekly Technical Outlook: Charts Highlight Bullish GBP Bias

2019-03-16 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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Sterling FX-Pairs Technical Analysis

  • GBPUSD over two cents higher on the week.
  • EURGBP continues to slide lower.

Q1 Trading Forecasts for a wide range of Currencies and Commodities, including GBPUSD and EURGBP with our fundamental and medium-term term technical outlook.

If you took Brexit out of the equation and looked at the GBPUSD chart you would likely think about entering a long-position as the current set-up is very positive. Since the start of the year, there has been a series of clear higher lows and higher highs, while the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement was broken mid-February and has not been seriously threatened since. In addition, the pair have traded above the 200-day moving average constantly since February 19 and above the 20- and 50-day this week. The RSI indicator shows a neutral backdrop, allowing for further price gains before the pair enter overbought territory. And just to add to the bulls’ case, GBPUSD broke the July 2018 swing-low and if the pair close above here, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3406 comes quickly into play.

How to Combine Fundamental and Technical Analysis.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – March 15, 2019)

gbpusd

A highly volatile week with EURGBP ending the session in the bottom quarter of the weekly range. After touching the highest level since mid-2017 at the start of the year (0.9116), EURGBP touched the lowest level since May-2017 this week around 0.84725, a drop of over 7% this year. The daily chart shows the pair well below all three-moving averages, a negative set-up, while 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8624 will provide resistance in the short-term, unless Brexit negotiations take a turn for the worse. With German, and Euro-Zone economic growth slowing sharply, and with new ECB liquidity measures (TLTROs) to kick-in around Q2/Q3, the path of least resistance for EURGBP remains lower, with this week’s low at 0.84725 guarding two old 2017 swing-lows around 0.8382 and 0.8313.

Looking for a fundamental perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Fundamental Forecast.

EURGBP Daily Price Chart ( - March 15, 2019)

eurgbp

Interest Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market

DailyFX has a vast amount of resources to help traders make more informed decisions. These include a fully updated Economic Calendar, and a raft of constantly updated Educational and Trading Guides

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

AUD Forecast – AUD/USD, GBP/AUD and AUD/JPY Technical Outlook Bearish

Crude Oil Forecast– Prices Touches New 2019 High As OPEC Supply Doubts Remain

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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