News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Senator Schumer: Senate will finish infrastructure and budget bills before August recess $USD $DXY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.95%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Fed's Bowman: - It may take time for some people to return to work - The record number of job opportunities is a good sign
  • Fed's Bowman: - There is still work to be done to get the US economy back on track - Employment remains significantly below where it was
  • USD/CAD bounced off support, but looks only corrective in nature. Short-term charts suggest we will soon see price turn down. Get your $USDCAD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.60% US 500: 0.60% France 40: 0.22% Germany 30: 0.18% FTSE 100: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Clarida Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min)
  • Bitcoin cooling off after an impressive run to end the month of July $BTCUSD #Bitcoin
  • Narrator: Not today. Nice rebound staged off that critical support level with oil and yields firming up a bit on the session. Will bulls push onward to print a higher high? $SPY #Trading #Markets
  • NY Fed accepts $909.44 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
GBP Fundamental Forecast: Bulls Taking Control of Sterling

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Bulls Taking Control of Sterling

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Important week ahead may keep Sterling in check.
  • A Soft Brexit or no Brexit at all are now being priced into Sterling.

The DailyFX Q1GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

A very, very close call not to change our Sterling forecast to bullish this week after market sentiment took a marked shift towards a Soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both GBP positive. On Tuesday PM May’s Brexit bill took a hammering in the HoC with the PM losing the vote by a record margin of 230 votes although the PM did win the subsequent no confidence vote, mainly due to the DUP vote. As a result, PM May must present her plan B to Parliament on Monday, a bill that is likely to look like Plan A. This plan B will be debated all next week. While the option of a No Deal Brexit is now highly unlikely, the PM has yet to say this and is unlikely to ahead of any further discussions with the EU.

Sterling (GBP) Price: Brexit Vote Impact on GBPUSD and EURGBP

Brexit Roundtable Webinar: Outlook for Sterling and Other UK Asset Classes

Sterling took this week’s votes to heart and began re-pricing all GBP-crosses pushing them higher. These moves also made Sterling technical set-ups look more positive, providing another uplift. While I think that Sterling will continue to make weekly gains, next week may well throw out negative headlines which will dampen any rally, although losses should be limited and contained within recent trading ranges. From a technical point of view, sell-offs should now be viewed as potential buying opportunities.

It is likely that we have already made the lows in most if not all Sterling crosses, although the last 2+ years has taught us that nothing can be taken for granted where Brexit is involved. Remain patient and disciplined when looking for entry points.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – January 18, 2019)


IG Client Sentiment data show 52.0% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests that GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. However, the combination of recent daily and weekly positional changes gives us a mixed trading bias.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Slowing China GDP to Curb AUD/USD Flash-Crash Rebound

Oil Forecast – Can Crude Oil Prices Keep Rising as China Slows? Brexit, ECB Eyed

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.