Never miss a story from Nick Cawley

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Nick Cawley

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Positive Brexit ‘talk’ boosts Sterling sentiment.
  • Provisional Q3 GDP data may underpin GDP.

The DailyFX Q4GBP Forecast is available to download.

We remain neutral on Sterling going into next week but acknowledge that GBP may push higher if the current, mildly positive Brexit background remains in place. The oversold nature of GBP meant that a couple of, as yet still unconfirmed, rumors over EU flexibility over the Irish border impasse and equivalence for the financial services sector, saw the British Pound move higher. Any confirmation from the EU, or even a recognition that talks on these areas are progressing, should underpin GBP at its current levels at the very least. Sterling even shrugged off a poor Markit Manufacturing PMI reading - 51.1 compared to a prior reading of 53.8 and expectations of 53.0 – the lowest print since July 2016, straight after the Brexit referendum.

Brexit Effect on Pound and UK Stocks – Impact of a Deal or No Deal.

Next week’s economic calendar is light with only the Markit services and composite releases on Tuesday of note until a deluge of UK data is released at 09:30 GMT on Friday, including the first look at Q3 GDP. Expectations are for a q/q reading of 0.6% or 0.7%, although this bout of economic strength is expected to fall back in Q4. In addition Friday, trade balance numbers and industrial, manufacturing and construction data releases may weigh or boost GBP.

Economic Calendar w/c November 4, 2018

On Mondays we will take an in-depth look at these important UK data releases, Brexit and other UK asset market drivers at 10:30GMT in our UK Key Events and Markets Webinar.

EURGBP touched a five-week high on Tuesday before falling back sharply as Brexit talk swirled around the market. The pair now trade below all three moving averages and look likely to fall back into the downward channel that started off the August 28 high.

EURGBP Daily Price Chart (April - November 2, 2018)

GBP: Sterling's Rally May Have More Room - All Things Being Equal

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ May Sink NZD Prices as 2018 US Midterms Offer it Uncertainty

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Shows Some Rare Resilience, May Hold Up

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Sell Off Puts Former Best Asset Within Whisper of Bear Market

Canadian Dollar Forecast – USD/CAD Rate Carves Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting