News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5ddzFV https://t.co/8GJ6OQYgnW
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ZKHGXeVhsR https://t.co/QSltMQml6N
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/DSp7f3YuAx
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/HNqHcbL6vk
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTFBxM https://t.co/FbepD4RaFg
USD/CAD Rate Carves Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting

USD/CAD Rate Carves Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting

David Song, Strategist
USDCAD

Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Neutral

USD/CAD bounces back from the weekly-low (1.3049) as the above-forecast print for U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) overshadows the 11.2K expansion in Canada Employment, but price action ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting raises the risk for a larger pullback in the exchange rate as it carves a fresh series of lower highs & lows.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on November 8 may influence the near-term outlook for USD/CAD even though the central bank is widely expected to retain the current policy as Fed Fund Futures continue to reflect expectations for a rate-hike in December.

USD/CAD Rate Carves Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting

It seems as though the FOMC is sticking to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as the central bank appears to be on course to raise the benchmark interest rate to a fresh range of 2.25% to 2.50% ahead of 2019, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to strike a hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy as the economy sits at full-employment, while inflation climbs above the 2% target.

Moreover, a growing number of Fed officials may show a greater willingness to extend the hiking-cycle as ‘several participants reported that firms in their Districts that were facing higher input prices because of tariffs perceived that they had an increased ability to raise the prices of their products,’ and the ongoing shift in U.S. trade policy may push Chairman Powell & Co. to ‘temporarily raise the federal funds rate above their assessments of its longer-run level in order to reduce the risk of a sustained overshooting of the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective or the risk posed by significant financial imbalances.’

With that said, signs of an imminent rate-hike paired with indicators for above-neutral interest rates may keep USD/CAD afloat over the coming days, with the recent advance in the exchange rate fostering a more constructive outlook as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appear to be breaking out of the bearish formations from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes & potential trade setups.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Rate Carves Lower Highs & Lows Ahead of Fed Meeting

The advance from the October-low (1.2782) may ultimately mark a change in USD/CAD behavior as it clears channel resistance, but the lack of momentum to test the September-high (1.3226) may generate a larger pullback as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of lower highs & lows. In turn, the October range is on the radar, with a move below the 1.2980 (61.8% retracement) to 1.3030 (50% expansion) region raising the risk for a decline towards 1.2830 (38.2% retracement).

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ May Sink NZD Prices as 2018 US Midterms Offer it Uncertainty

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Shows Some Rare Resilience, May Hold Up

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Sell Off Puts Former Best Asset Within Whisper of Bear Market

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES