We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/u3CV0Yf72D
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 3.39% Silver: 1.98% Gold: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4cr8FGuDJ0
  • #Oil continues to head higher on OPEC+ meeting expectations, the drop is going to be painful if this meeting proves to be another waste of time #brent #wti
  • FTSE 100 +2.5% at 5,750...a clear break of 5,826 exposes a gap between 6,240 and 6,400...might need more than a fair wind to get there in the short-term though. #ftse #ukstocks #trading @DailyFX https://t.co/a1towvHedl
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 1.61% 🇳🇿NZD: 1.32% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.80% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.63% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.56% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/kurJf0sgQ9
  • CHF Swiss March Foreign Currency Reserves Actual: 765.6b Previous:769.1b
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 3.55% France 40: 2.69% Wall Street: 1.99% US 500: 1.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/QIwE4xVjWB
  • AUD Australian March Foreign Reserves: Actual: 90.6b Previous: 83.6b
  • #Bitcoin prices may see a pickup in volatility ahead of the 2020 halving as the #coronavirus pandemic threatens to disrupt cross-continental $BTC mining operations. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/BoH24MVf4P https://t.co/4eev6zPgYv
  • USD/CHF IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short USD/CHF for the first time since Mar 27, 2020 when USD/CHF traded near 0.95. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/CHF strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uJHliAMWZL
GBP: Bullish Sentiment Erased by Brexit Impasse

GBP: Bullish Sentiment Erased by Brexit Impasse

2018-09-22 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:
Please add a description for the image.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Chequers plan now looks dead in the water in its current format.
  • The next two months is make-or-break for Brexit and UK PM Theresa May.

The DailyFX Q3 GBP Forecast is available to download.

The outlook for Sterling turns to neutral from bullish after a disastrous informal EU Summit meeting for UK PM Theresa May where her Chequers proposal was put to the sword by the EU 27. After starting the week well, with positive noises coming out of the EU over the proposal, the EU told the UK that the plan was unworkable and would need major revisions, something the UK has already ruled out. In normally circumstances, and these are anything but, a bearish view would be warranted but both sides still need to make an agreement as a no-deal would badly affect both economies. The sidelines remain the place to be for now.

Sterling volatility is expected to increase sharply in the coming weeks as the official EU Summit in October and the ‘emergency’ EU Summit in November come into view. The mid-November Summit is the last chance for a deal to be signed-off before the March 2019 Brexit date and is pivotal for Sterling’s short-, medium- and long-term direction. And before then the annual four-day Conservative Party conference, starting on September 30, may well see a fresh leadership challenge unless the PM can convince the party faithful to back her.

Next week’s data calendar is relatively clear aside from the final Q2 GDP release next Friday, although BoE governor Mark Carney will be on stage at a conference in Frankfurt on Thursday (14:00 GMT) and needs to be followed. GBPUSD traders should also be aware of a raft of heavyweight US economic data releases next week along with the latest FOMC meeting where US interest rates are fully expected to rise by another 0.25%.

The best Brexit-pair, EURGBP, shows how damaging the last 24 hours has been for Sterling sentiment with the pair rebounding sharply to a fresh two week high.

EURGBP Four Hour Price Chart (August 8 – September 21, 2018)

GBP: Bullish Sentiment Erased by Brexit Impasse

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - Fed, RBNZ Risk Derailing Remarkable New Zealand Dollar Recovery

Japanese Yen Forecast - JPY Bears Eye 113 Level

Oil Forecast – Oil Firms Ahead of Algiers OPEC Meeting That May Set Stage for Q4

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.