We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Dow Jones moved confidently higher last week as it added onto recent gains. Now, #stocks will aim to continue their rally while enjoying support from prior all-time highs. Get your technical analysis on #equities from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Qb89HIWxBY https://t.co/HMguTvD157
  • How can you trade #forex after a major release? Find out: https://t.co/sdxcXb8q60 #tradingstyle https://t.co/LNcbvVhIc2
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/mk1w1DM2Rh https://t.co/m763epaH2C
  • Crude #oil prices, $NOK and $SEK may rise if Donald Trump’s speech on trade war developments amplifies market buoyancy against the backdrop of critical US CPI and retails sales data. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/5rdK7xsQNq https://t.co/YnlQjKNZdS
  • RT @next_china: U.S., China chief trade negotiators spoke by phone on Saturday, Xinhua reports https://t.co/dMQtd0g4jY
  • The $AUDUSD and $EURUSD downtrend may prolong as traders counterintuitively buy into their descent. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD uptrend may accelerate on rising net-short bets. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/dlzJ31kf3f https://t.co/xp8P9MmCgb
  • As we head into next week, Cable is continuing to digest the massive leg higher last month, which at some point soon could mean another surge. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/LJ42YhDe3X https://t.co/5hGwhGBpLB
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/urMnUCq4fn
  • RT @markets: White-hot pot stocks have flamed out in spectacular fashion https://t.co/3GsVsRyZaZ
  • What is the best time to trade #forex? Find out: https://t.co/M9R46r5ewa #tradingstyle https://t.co/gJ1QDrox67
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Plummets into Support- Loonie Stall?

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Plummets into Support- Loonie Stall?

2019-10-29 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The Canadian Dollar offensive against US Dollar stalled this week with the a three-week breakdown in USD/CAD taking price into the first major support hurdle. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Canadian Dollar Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Price Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, “USD/CAD is in a range just below critical resistance- the immediate focus is on a break of 1.3155-1.3370 for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the recent decline keeps the risk weighted to the downside targeting the lower bounds of the range.” Two-weeks later, and USD/CAD has plummeted more than 2.2% off the monthly highs with the decline breaking below the multi-week consolidation pattern we’ve been tracking.

The sell-off takes price into a key lateral level of support here at 1.3052/58- a region defined by the yearly low-week close and the 38.2% retracement of the 2017 advance – look for a reaction here. The immediate downside bias may be vulnerable near-term IF this holds.

Weekly resistance stands at the monthly high-week reversal close at 1.3192 with a break lower form here exposing subsequent support objectives at 1.2972 and the lower parallel at 1.2863/85 – an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The USD/CAD breakdown is testing the first major support target at 1.3052/58 and a break / close below is needed to mark resumption of broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. We’ll favor fading strength while below 1.32, ultimately targeting break of this key support zone. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +2.57 (71.99% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 8.47% higher than yesterday and 37.88% higher from last week
  • Short positions are7.72% higher than yesterday and 19.83% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias from sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.