Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar Surges into Trend Resistance

Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar Surges into Trend Resistance

What's on this page

The Australian Dollar has rallied more than 3% against the US Dollar off the monthly lows with the a three-week advance now targeting confluence resistance at the upper bounds of a multi-month range in price. It’s make-or-break here for the bulls. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts this week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, “Aussie will need to stabilize into the start of October trade IF the September advance is to remain viable. From a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for an exhaustion low early next month with a breach above the June 2018 trendline needed to suggest a more significant low was registered in Q2.” AUD/USD rebounded off the August lows into the October open with the rebound now targeting resistance at the 2018 trendline / September highs at 6895.

This level is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement of the July decline at 6927- we’ll require a breach / close above this threshold to validate a larger reversal in price with such a scenario targeting key resistance at the yearly open / 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 7042/59. Look for exhaustion / support ahead of 6800 on pullbacks with bullish invalidation set to the low-week close at 6768.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Aussie has been in a price range since the August lows with the recent recovery now eyeing confluence resistance at the upper bounds. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for possible exhaustion here but we’ll broadly favor fading weakness while above 6768 targeting a topside breach of this multi-month channel resistance. I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trading levels.

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.01 (49.92% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 0.20% lower than yesterday and 22.97% lower from last week
  • Short positions are14.56% higher than yesterday and 91.75% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.