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Waiting for Euro-zone Excitement to Settle

Waiting for Euro-zone Excitement to Settle

2012-02-20 16:55:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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While the Euro-zone leaders convene in Brussels, I remain on the sidelines. With a federal holiday in the United States, volume and thus liquidity in the markets is lower, meaning price action is more than likely to be sporatic and "spikey" on any news out of Europe.

As such, I will wait for the dust to settle from the most recent Euro-zone conference before I initiate any positions. There are some observations across various pairs worth noting:

- AUDUSD: "Golden Cross" formed today, with 50-DMA moving above 200-DMA. Typically, this is the sign of a constructive move higher for a bull run. It is worth noting that its counterpart, the "Death Cross" (50-DMA below 200-DMA) formed on October 4, the subsequent 2011 low.

- GBPJPY: Closing in on October high of 127.296. A break above can't be discounted given Yen weakness and optimism out of Europe, but congestion is what I'm looking for before the next big move (the pair is up over 600-pips in February).

- GBPNZD: The pair is closing in on its 2011 low of 1.8542. This level could break with relative ease should the Euro-zone summit yield an exceptionally bullish scenario. I'll be looking to sell a breakout as more easing from the Bank of England hasn't been priced into the GBP yet, in my opinion.

- EURCHF: Now back under 1.2100, I'll be looking to buy on a dip below 1.2050, but closer 1.2030, the 2012 low. Reward/risk is high, given the monetary and political pressures on the Franc.

- USDCHF: Likely to come under further pressure on a Euro-zone resolution. The pair is unlikely to test its post-SNB peg low of 0.8567 without bouncing off of the 200-DMA at 0.8763. I'll be looking to buy at this level.

Any other trade updates can be viewed in the real time news feed, or you can follow me on twitter at @CVecchioFX for trade thoughts and other macroeconomic musings.

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