S&P 500, SPX, NASDAQ 100, NDX - TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
- The S&P 500 index is holding above key support but is still looking for bullish momentum.
- The Nasdaq 100 index looks relatively weaker.
- What lies ahead and what are the key levels to watch?
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S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL
The S&P 500 index continues to be weighed by stiff resistance on the 200-day moving average – it has made three unsuccessful attempts since November to clear the long-term moving average. On the weekly chart, the two rallies in the second half of 2022 we associated with subdued momentum, suggesting the index may not yet be ripe for a break higher. A break above the 200-day moving average barrier would be significant as it would be the first such break since the downtrend began a year ago.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
![image1.png](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3UPoYj/image1.png)
Chart Created Using TradingView
On the other hand, the hold in recent weeks above vital Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart raises a small chance that the index could be attempting to form a base. In this regard, it is important for the index to hold above the December low of 3765. A failure to do so would accentuate downside risks.
S&P 500 Weekly Chart
![image2.png](https://a.c-dn.net/b/0DnifQ/image2.png)
Chart Created Using TradingView
From a slightly zoomed-out perspective, it is unclear if the December leg lower wasthe secondary low that the Q1-23 outlook highlighted. A break above the December high of 4100, around the 200-day moving average, would raise the odds that the secondary low was in place, opening the way toward the August high of 4325.
NASDAQ 100 INDEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL
The Nasdaq 100 index appears to be the weaker of the two indices as it languishes around the 2022 lows – the underperformance possibility was highlighted in the Q1-23 outlook.
Not only is the Nasdaq 100 index well below its 200-day moving average, but it has also been under the Ichimoku cloud, in contrast to the S&P 500 index. The technology-heavy index toward the end of the year fell back to its 2022 lows, keeping alive the chances of a secondary low –see two scenarios of the formation of a secondary low pointed out in the outlook.
NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart
![image3.png](https://a.c-dn.net/b/36DLeB/image3.png)
Chart Created Using TradingView
Furthermore, the index continues to struggle around the 200-week moving average and upward momentum has been feeble recently – similar to the corrective rallies in the latter part of 2022. The December high of 297, coinciding with the 200-day moving average, remains a vital ceiling. Any break above could open the way toward the August high of 334, and potentially raise the odds that the secondary low was in.
NASDAQ 100 Weekly Chart
![image4.png](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3M0pmD/image4.png)
Chart Created Using TradingView
On the downside, any break of the October low of 10440 could pave the way toward the pre-Covid high of 9737 and an uptrend line from 2016, near the 89-month moving average. A more bearish scenario is a fall toward the 2018 high of 7692.
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--- Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com