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Bitcoin Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Lower Before Higher

Bitcoin Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Lower Before Higher

Paul Robinson, Strategist
Bitcoin Forecast
Bitcoin Forecast
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The outlook for BTC/USD this coming quarter to put simply is, lower before higher. As it currently stands there is the dollar and everything else, meaning that as the dollar propels higher just about everything else suffers, except volatility.

With that in mind, the thinking is that cryptos will continue to weaken as the new quarter begins and the dollar maintains a bid and other risk markets get punished. There does appear to be a good chance, however, that we will see a reprieve in this theme at some point relatively soon, perhaps as soon as October.

It will be noteworthy to watch how the dollar and the S&P 500 behave. The thinking is that we will see a bit of a capitulation move in stocks (inverse for the dollar) that leads to a strong spike in the VIX that marks a low this fall before an end of year rally develops.

On that we should see cryptos recover as market participants come back to take risk. However, the rebound may subdue (similar to the summer rally) as the crypto space is seen as undergoing a long deflation process and enthusiasm towards the market continues to wane.

Turning to some levels, the next major one to watch beneath the 2017 high is the 2019 high under 14k at 13937, followed by nothing significant in terms of price until the pandemic low at 3850. While that low could get reached at some point it is not expected to be hit on this particular move lower. It would likely take something catastrophic to see those types of levels this fall.

The sub-14k area is certainly within reach, though, and perhaps we see a bottom develop without any meaningful levels hold. Again, it appears that as goes the dollar and risk trends goes BTC and so when we see a turn in other major markets then buyers may look to come back into cryptos.

The floor around the 2017 high (19666/17593) will become viewed as resistance on any rally that may develop from depths that are well beneath it.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Chart

Histogram  Description automatically generated

Chart created with TradingView

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