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Australian Dollar Outlook: Inflation to Drive Rates Path

Australian Dollar Outlook: Inflation to Drive Rates Path

Daniel McCarthy, Strategist


Technical Analysis: Has Momentum Turned?

After breaking the downside of the ascending trend channel in February, AUD/USD made a low at 0.6565, which was just above the breakpoint of 0.6548. This might provide a support zone if tested again.

The price has been traversing the 10- and 21-day simple moving averages (SMA) going into the end of the first quarter but remains below the 34-, 55-, 100-, 200- and 260-day SMAs. This may suggest that bearish momentum is pausing in the near term, but a further push higher would be needed to confirm that underlying bearishness has evaporated.

Resistance could be at the recent peaks of 0.6759 and 0.6784. Those levels also currently coincide with the 34-, 100- and 200-day SMAs. Above there, the breakpoint of 0.6856 is also in the vicinity of the 55- and 260-day SMAs and may offer resistance.


Chart prepared by Daniel McCarthy in TradingView


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