We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @malkudsi: Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD/CAD Reverses Lower, What’s Next? More details in the link below: https://t.co/gcN0SU2…
  • BOJ's Kuroda: - BOJ economic forecasts are based on different assumptions vs those of the government - BOJ path for CPI ends up being higher than government projection #JPY
  • RT @YuanTalks: Hubei privince, the epicenternof the #coronavirus cases, has revised the number of new cases on Thursday upward to 631 from…
  • A brief $AUD recovery may have run out of steam, with the currency poised to break range support and test below 0.66 against its US counterpart. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/dqr2Vpbnjk https://t.co/HIq0i37RbY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.02%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tiK3d5TnFL
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/WGWYCqlCT1
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.27% France 40: -0.31% Wall Street: -0.41% US 500: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cOwOxBR3WQ
  • 🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC), Actual: 0.0% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-21
  • The $JPY continues to struggle against the US Dollar but there seems little appetite to push USD/JPY much beyond a range which has tended to reassert itself since late last year. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/iaVfPSMypC https://t.co/g8VnBPcgH2
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-21
Oil Price Outlook: Crude Threatens Breakout at Multi-month Highs

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Threatens Breakout at Multi-month Highs

2019-12-19 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Crude Oil prices are poised to mark the third consecutive weekly advance with WTI surging more than 11.5% off the November lows. The advance takes oil into confluence resistance at multi-month highs into the close of the year and we’re on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest Crude Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In my previous OilWeekly Price Outlook we noted that WTI was approaching resistance near 58.45/61 with a close above needed to, “keep the focus on subsequent topside resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 60.47 and the highlighted trendline confluence around ~61.40s.” A price breakout has already taken out initial targets with this week’s advance registering a high at 61.17 on Wednesday. Note that while an RSI resistance trigger has already broken to the topside, price remains below the April trendline and keeps oil within the confines of this broad consolidation pattern off the yearly highs.

The immediate advance may be vulnerable heading into the close of the month / year with a breach / close above the slope confluence needed to keep the long-bias viable targeting 63.60-64.40 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2018 decline and the August 2018 swing low (look for a larger reaction there IF reached). Initial support rests with the September channel around the 58-handle backed by medium-term bullish invalidation at the October low-week close a 54.78.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Crude oil prices are approaching confluence resistance at the upper bounds of a multi-month consolidation pattern and leaves the late-September rally vulnerable into the close of the year. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch into channel resistance – be on the lookout for topside exhaustion IF oil closes the week below this threshold. Ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable long-entries while above the 54.78. I’ll publish an updated Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term technical trade levels.

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - Technical Forecast - Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short crude oil - the ratio stands at -2.48 (28.72% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.90% lower than yesterday and 19.97% lower from last week
  • Short positions are4.02% higher than yesterday and 28.05% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US crude oil prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger crude oil-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Oil - US Crude BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -7% 12% -3%
Weekly -20% 13% -15%
Learn how shifts in Oil retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.