Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: NZD/USD Breakout Goes Parabolic

New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: NZD/USD Breakout Goes Parabolic

What's on this page

The New Zealand Dollar is up more than 1.3% against the US Dollar since the Asia open with a breakout in NZD/USD taking price to levels not seen since August. The These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart – NZD/USD Weekly

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Kiwi had, “marked a bearish reversal off key resistance last week and the focus is on confluence support just above the 63-handle.” Price registered a low at 6322 before rebounding with NZD/USD breaching resistance at the 2018 low close at 6436 into the open this week.

The breakout has already extended into the next major level of confluence resistance at 6506- a region where the 2018 low-week converges on the 75% parallel of the broader descending pitchfork formation. The immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold near-term with interim support now at 6436 backed by the median-line (currently ~6400) – Kiwi would need to hold above this slope for the breakout to remain viable. A topside breach / close above this threshold would keep the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement at 6564 backed closely by the upper parallel.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The New Zealand Dollar breakout is testing the first major zone of resistance and leave the immediate advance vulnerable while below 6506. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for downside exhaustion ahead of the median-line IF Kiwi is indeed heading higher with a topside breach here needed o fuel the next leg higher in price. I’ll publish an updated Kiwi Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term NZD/USD technical trade levels.

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment - NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.21 (54.8% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.96% higher than yesterday and 8.18% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 9.46% lower than yesterday and 10.31% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Key New Zealand / US Data Releases

Key New Zealand / US Data Releases - NZD/USD Economic Calendar

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.