We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Oil Price Targets: Crude Collapses after Failed Breakout– WTI Levels

Oil Price Targets: Crude Collapses after Failed Breakout– WTI Levels

2019-09-25 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist

Oil prices have remained under pressure since last week’s +15% range in price with crude pulling back below downtrend resistance, nearly paring the entire advance. The decline is now approaching monthly open support and we’re looking for a reaction in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil weekly price chart (WTI). Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - Crude Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: Crude prices posted the largest single-week range since November 2014 last week with price failing to close above a critical resistance confluence at 60.06/47 – a region defined by the 2018 yearly open and the 61.8% retracement of the late-April decline. Note that weekly momentum has continued to compress into the apex of a consolidation pattern and we’re looking for the break to offer further guidance / validation of the near-term directional bias.

Despite the recent price spike, oil continues to trade within the confines of a modified descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 / 2019 highs and keeps the broader outlook tilted to the downside while below the upper parallel. Initial support rests with the low-week close at 54.23 with key support steady at 51.03/60 Fibonacci confluence – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support objectives at 48.24 and 44.92-45.23 (key) in the event of a break. A topside breach / close above 64.40 would ultimately be needed to shift the broader focus higher in oil prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Crude oil prices failed at key confluence resistance last week and leaves the broader downtrend intact. Form a trading standpoint, looking sideways to lower for now with a break of the pending momentum consolidation to offer further guidance. We’ll favor fading strength while below the upper parallel ultimately targeting a test / break below the August low-week close.

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Oil - the ratio stands at +2.7 (73.0% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since September 16th; price has moved 4.6% lower since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since August 1st
  • Long positions are 22.8% higher than yesterday and 15.9% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 19.3% lower than yesterday and 31.3% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in crude oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.