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  • ...but before you write off H&S patterns because more have fallen apart rather than catalyzed lately, consider the monthly chart of $AUDUSD as well. That 0.8000-0.7925 zone is no joke as its historical midpoint, trendine and other technical points confluence https://t.co/dB6edmmA1d
  • While there are other Dollar pairs getting more attention lately, I think $AUDUSD deserve a spot in the rotation. It's currently working out whether it is going to abide 2021's range as a consolidation reversal risk (H&S pattern)... https://t.co/M7dG0a8Isw
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.18% Silver: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AS3CtSNbr4
  • Fed's Evans: - Tepid April jobs report was a 'head scratcher' - Welcomes wage growth as sign of a healthy jobs market - Fed has room to overshoot inflation target - 'It will be a while' before US has made enough progress to talk about tapering
  • US 10-Year Treasury yield extending to session highs and steering the Nasdaq to new lows of the day $NDX $QQQ $NQ_F https://t.co/ReXcLVpGy8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.77%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wI1kMvJkwU
  • The price of gold extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week even though the 10-Year US Treasury yield retraces the decline following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/kyW7ukihdY https://t.co/keRXgNxmyp
  • Fed's Evans: - Very optimistic US will get back to strong job numbers - Still expects unemployment to fall below 5% this year $USD $DXY $TNX
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.67% US 500: -0.15% France 40: -0.18% Germany 30: -0.20% FTSE 100: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/f9gTcPN7Ev
  • EUR/USD holding proven support level. Pullback may be over, but hurdles yet to cross. Get your $EURUSD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/o6LAHTn29c
Oil Price Targets: Crude Collapses after Failed Breakout– WTI Levels

Oil Price Targets: Crude Collapses after Failed Breakout– WTI Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Oil prices have remained under pressure since last week’s +15% range in price with crude pulling back below downtrend resistance, nearly paring the entire advance. The decline is now approaching monthly open support and we’re looking for a reaction in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil weekly price chart (WTI). Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - Crude Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: Crude prices posted the largest single-week range since November 2014 last week with price failing to close above a critical resistance confluence at 60.06/47 – a region defined by the 2018 yearly open and the 61.8% retracement of the late-April decline. Note that weekly momentum has continued to compress into the apex of a consolidation pattern and we’re looking for the break to offer further guidance / validation of the near-term directional bias.

Despite the recent price spike, oil continues to trade within the confines of a modified descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 / 2019 highs and keeps the broader outlook tilted to the downside while below the upper parallel. Initial support rests with the low-week close at 54.23 with key support steady at 51.03/60 Fibonacci confluence – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support objectives at 48.24 and 44.92-45.23 (key) in the event of a break. A topside breach / close above 64.40 would ultimately be needed to shift the broader focus higher in oil prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Crude oil prices failed at key confluence resistance last week and leaves the broader downtrend intact. Form a trading standpoint, looking sideways to lower for now with a break of the pending momentum consolidation to offer further guidance. We’ll favor fading strength while below the upper parallel ultimately targeting a test / break below the August low-week close.

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Oil - the ratio stands at +2.7 (73.0% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since September 16th; price has moved 4.6% lower since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since August 1st
  • Long positions are 22.8% higher than yesterday and 15.9% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 19.3% lower than yesterday and 31.3% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in crude oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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