Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Canadian Dollar Price Chart: USD/CAD Range, Loonie Breakout Potential

Canadian Dollar Price Chart: USD/CAD Range, Loonie Breakout Potential

What's on this page

The Canadian Dollar is up down more-than 0.2% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/CAD stretching into near-term resistance post- FOMC yesterday. Despite the recent advance, Loonie remains within the confines of a well-defined range with the broader outlook still tilted to the downside. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was approaching daily resistance at, “1.3288- a close above this threshold is needed to keep the near-term long-bias viable.” A brief stint above pulled back with price closing precisely at 1.3288 on the heels of the FOMC. Note that USD/CAD continues to trade within the confines of the early September outside-weekly reversal range and the focus remains on a break of this zone for guidance with the broader risk lower while below key resistance at 1.3355/70- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the May decline.

Initial support rests with the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the 2018 high with a break / close below 1.3155 needed to fuel the next leg lower in USD/CAD. Such a scenario would expose downside support objectives at the low-week close at 1.3059 and the 100% extension of the yearly January decline at 1.2972.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias. From a trading standpoint, we’ll continue to favor fading strength while within this formation targeting a downside break of the September opening-range. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term technical trading levels for USD/CAD.

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -2.06 (32.7% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short since September 12th; price has moved 0.4% higher since then
  • Long positions are 16.3% lower than yesterday and 39.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.8% higher than yesterday and 34.3% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.