News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • https://t.co/YTOXNyrBZE https://t.co/zRNJaBLgZv
  • The break higher in Silver (XAGUSD) gaining more credibility - taking out the resistance/support apex. #silver #xagusd @DailyFXTeam From yesterday...https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/19/Silver-Price-XAGUSD-Rallying-Through-Short-Term-Trend-Resistance.html
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.56% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.44% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.44% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.27% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/A1GsRRTQgf
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.70% Wall Street: 0.64% FTSE 100: 0.32% France 40: 0.18% Germany 30: -0.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/V0Dhx8n8ES
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Quarles Speech due at 14:50 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-20
  • GBP/USD will likely continue to trade in a narrow range as the UK continues to argue that there is no point in resuming the post-Brexit trade talks with the EU. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/zh4rKXXE0M https://t.co/SP9iZ6YHIM
  • $AUDCAD breakdown still running https://t.co/N6MrmrODwA https://t.co/vA4zjMBWr0
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.99% Gold: -0.14% Oil - US Crude: -0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/M5wtVYrcP8
  • FTSE 100 - All 3 simple moving averages about to converge, add the 38.2% fib retracement and some ultra low vol (ATR)...this one's getting ready for a breakout...#ftse #ftse100 @DailyFX https://t.co/0A2QrBjISd
  • Nas 100 trying to find some balance at this zone of prior resistance $Nasdaq $Nas $QQQ https://t.co/vnrqmPsLmV
Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Rally at Resistance into FOMC

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Rally at Resistance into FOMC

2019-09-18 15:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

The Canadian Dollar is down more than 0.28% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with the recent price rally taking Loonie within striking distance of near-term down-trend resistance heading into the FOMC interest rate decision later today. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Techncial Forecast - Trade Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted to look for a reaction as USD/CAD was approaching near-term resistance at 1.3258/58- “A breach would likely fuel an accelerated rally exposing subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1.3288 with broader bearish invalidation at 1.3306.” Price registered a high at 1.33 this week before pulling back with daily resistance steady at the upper parallel / 61.8% retracement at 1.3288- a close above this threshold is needed to keep the near-term long-bias viable.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Technical Forecast - Trade Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: A closer low at Loonie price action sees USD/CAD continuing to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the August / September highs with breach above the medina-line late-last week fueling a rally towards the upper parallels. Initial resistance steady at the 1.3284/88 with a breach above 1.3306 needed to validate a breakout.

Support rests with the weekly open / 50% retracement at 1.3217/20 backed by the confluence support around 1.32- a break below this level would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend targeting the 1.3145/55 pivot zone.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Loonie has carved a well-defined weekly opening-range just below downslope resistance heading into the FOMC later today. From a trading standpoint, the recovery remains vulnerable while within this formation- look for possible exhaustion on a stretch towards 1.3284/88 IF reached, targeting a break of the weekly lows. A close above 1.3307 would shift the focus back towards 1.3355. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Technical Forecast - Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.63 (38.0% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are unchanged than yesterday and 29.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are1.2% lower than yesterday and 11.9% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet, traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Key US / Canada Data Releases

USD/CAD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES