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Euro Price Chart: Breakout Imminent EUR/USD Coils at Trend Support

Euro Price Chart: Breakout Imminent EUR/USD Coils at Trend Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro snapped a two-week winning streak with price set to close down more than 0.6% against the US Dollar on Friday. Despite the recent losses, EUR/USD continues to hold just above broader downtrend support and heading into next week the focus is on a break of the near-term range carved out this week. Here These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie price setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Weekly Euro Price Chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes:In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had rebounded off downtrend support while noting that IF price, “has indeed turned the corner, look for exhaustion pullbacks to be limited to the monthly open.” Euro has been testing monthly open support for the past few days with price trading just above 1.0990 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Key resistance remains at 1.1107 where the May swing low converges on the June trendline - a breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this month with such a scenario targeting initial topside objectives at the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 advance at 1.1186- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Initial support rests at with the 1.382% parallel (currently ~1.0990) – a break / close below would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend targeting 1.0814/54.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:Euro is ranging just above long-term downtrend support. From a trading standpoint, we remain on the lookout for possible exhaustion lows while above the yearly low close at 1.0988 with a breach above the June slope needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. Weakness below this threshold could see further accelerated losses towards the 1.08-handle – stay nimble her into the close of the month. Review my latest Euro Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trading levels.

Euro SentimentEUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Client Sentiment Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD- the ratio stands at +1.47 (59.5% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 1st; price has moved 2.1% lower since then
  • Long positions are0.7% higher than yesterday and 5.1% higher from last week
  • Short positions are0.9% lower than yesterday and 0.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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