News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 11:30 PM ET/3:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/Dx6UMk2g1c
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.53% Oil - US Crude: 0.35% Gold: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BjCmKqaBM8
  • The two-day closure of the Japanese markets suggests that liquidity in both equity and forex could be thin, rendering #USDJPY and #Nikkei225 futures susceptible to large swings, should there be surprising news. Read more here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/21/Nasdaq-100-to-Test-100-Day-SMA--Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-May-Open-Flat.html https://t.co/5fTJl1ytSe
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.25% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.24% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.16% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ajs1wgZFD2
  • #Market Snapshot Broad risk-on tilt to kick off a fresh week of trade as the risk-sensitive $AUDUSD jumps back above the 0.73 mark. Haven-linked $USD drifting lower against its major counterparts while $JPY attempts to peg back lost ground. https://t.co/yWVnyRKfbT
  • The US #Dollar may fall if demand for haven-linked assets fall after testimonies from Powell and Mnuchin to the House. Better-than-expected data may compound the Greenback’s selling streak. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/HRjFvPKlvx https://t.co/n2IMVDqpZn
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.06%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.11%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/eoCmgXp0MN
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/QVVQkoSwMW
  • The S&P 500 index may struggle in the near term – drifting sideways within the bounds of its Bollinger Band – but the overall trend still looks bullish. Get your #equities update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BysksU7lWj https://t.co/UV0hFkZBte
  • #EURUSD Breaking Down, #tiktokban Averted. Biden Leads Trump in Polls https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/09/20/EURUSD-Breaking-Down-TikTok-Ban-Averted-Biden-Leads-Trump-in-Polls.html
New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: Kiwi Falters Near Six-Month Highs

New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: Kiwi Falters Near Six-Month Highs

2020-07-17 14:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

New Zealand Dollar Technical Price Outlook: NZD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • New Zealand Dollarupdated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • NZD/USD rallies 20%+ off yearly lows- stalling at multi-year downtrend resistance
  • Kiwi advance vulnerable while below 6628 – critical support 6313

The New Zealand Dollar is poised to snap a three-week winning streak against the US Dollar with the Kiwi rally faltering at log-term down-trend resistance. The advance may be vulnerable here as momentum stalls and with the bulls at risk into the 66-handle. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly price chart heading into next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwitrade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 21
( 12:09 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart – NZD/USD Weekly

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart - NZD/USD Weekly - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that a breakout in NZD/USD had fueled a rally into confluence slope resistance heading into the close of June trade with initial support eyed, “at the 2019 low-week close at 6313.” The Kiwi pullback registered a low at 6380 in the following weeks before mounting a counteroffensive with price now challenging a key technical confluence at 6585-6628- a region defined by the June highs & the 100% extension the March rally and converges on long-term downtrend resistance (blue). Note that weekly RSI has held sub-60 since the start of the year and casts a bearish momentum profile while below this threshold.

Initial weekly support now raised to the March trendline / late-June lows at 6380 with bullish invalidation now raised to the 2019 low-week close at 6313- weakness beyond this threshold would risk a larger scale Kiwi correction. A breach / close above 6628 is needed to keep the long-bias viable with critical resistance eyed at the 2019 / 2020 yearly opens at 6705/33- look for a more significant reaction there IF reached.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The New Zealand Dollar rally is testing confluence slope resistance here and leaves the broader advance vulnerable heading in 6628. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for downside exhaustion ahead of 6380 IF price is heading higher with a close above 6628 needed to fuel the next leg up in price. I’ll publish an updated New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term NZD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment - NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -2.00 (33.38% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are 5.33% higher than yesterday and 2.47% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 12.57% lower than yesterday and 11.59% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
NZD/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% 2% 2%
Weekly -4% 16% 9%
Learn how shifts in Kiwi retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

Key New Zealand / US Economic Releases

Key New Zealand / US Economic Data Releases - Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES