Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Trend Compression- Breakout Levels

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Trend Compression- Breakout Levels

What's on this page

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD falters ahead of 2020 highs – risk for correction while below 1.1370
  • Critical support at 1.1029 – breach / close above 1.1449 needed to fuel leg higher

Euro rallied more than 0.9% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD rebounding off a key technical confluence zone we’ve been tracking for months now. The recent recovery may be short-lived however as price holds below the yearly highs and we’re on the lookout for a breakout of this two-week range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted to look for a break of the 1.0777-1.0987 range for guidance with a breach / weekly close above need to keep the focus on, “subsequent topside objectives at 1.1092 and 1.1167/87 (critical).” EUR/USD blasted through this threshold into the close of May with the rally faltering early in June at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 decline at 1.1370.

The subsequent pullback tested support this week back at 1.1167/87 with bullish invalidation now raised to the 50% retracement at 1.1029. A topside breach from here keeps the focus on the 2019 objective yearly open at 1.1445- look for a reaction there with a close above needed to mark a larger reversal in trend towards 1.1597.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Euro Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Euro failed to breach the yearly highs on this last stretch and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the risk remains for further weakness while below 1.1370. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a break of the 1.1167-1.1370 range for guidance – losses should be limited to 1.1029 IF price is indeed heading higher. Ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries closer to trend support. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Weekly Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.78 (35.99% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are14.50% lower than yesterday and 16.36% higher from last week
  • Short positions are3.33% higher than yesterday and 8.57% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -3% 30% 13%
Weekly -11% 14% 2%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Key Euro / US Data Releases

Euro / US Key Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.