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Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Trend Compression- Breakout Levels

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Trend Compression- Breakout Levels

2020-06-24 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD falters ahead of 2020 highs – risk for correction while below 1.1370
  • Critical support at 1.1029 – breach / close above 1.1449 needed to fuel leg higher

Euro rallied more than 0.9% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD rebounding off a key technical confluence zone we’ve been tracking for months now. The recent recovery may be short-lived however as price holds below the yearly highs and we’re on the lookout for a breakout of this two-week range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted to look for a break of the 1.0777-1.0987 range for guidance with a breach / weekly close above need to keep the focus on, “subsequent topside objectives at 1.1092 and 1.1167/87 (critical).” EUR/USD blasted through this threshold into the close of May with the rally faltering early in June at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 decline at 1.1370.

The subsequent pullback tested support this week back at 1.1167/87 with bullish invalidation now raised to the 50% retracement at 1.1029. A topside breach from here keeps the focus on the 2019 objective yearly open at 1.1445- look for a reaction there with a close above needed to mark a larger reversal in trend towards 1.1597.

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Bottom line: Euro failed to breach the yearly highs on this last stretch and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the risk remains for further weakness while below 1.1370. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a break of the 1.1167-1.1370 range for guidance – losses should be limited to 1.1029 IF price is indeed heading higher. Ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries closer to trend support. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Weekly Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.78 (35.99% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are14.50% lower than yesterday and 16.36% higher from last week
  • Short positions are3.33% higher than yesterday and 8.57% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% 3% 5%
Weekly 9% 11% 10%
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Key Euro / US Data Releases

Euro / US Key Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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