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Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Testing Multi-Week Range Extremes

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Testing Multi-Week Range Extremes

2020-05-20 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD approaching multi-week range extremes / confluence resistance
  • Critical support at 1.0777 – breach / close above 1.1187 needed to shift broader focus higher

Euro has surged more than 1.5% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD attempting to breach the May opening-range highs. To accomplish this feat, the breakout would need to rally through a key resistance confluence which has capped the previous two advances and we’re looking for a reaction up here. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted to be, “on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above 1.0657 IF price is indeed heading higher…” Price briefly registered a low at 1.0727 before rebounding sharply back to confluence resistance at the 2019 low-week close / 61.8% retracement at 1.0976/87- a breach / weekly close above would keep the immediate long-bias viable with such a scenario eying subsequent topside objectives at 1.1092 and 1.1167/87 (critical). Weekly support steady at the late-January 2016 lows at 1.0775 with a break / close below the March 2017 high-week close at 1.0657 needed to mark resumption of the broader 2018 down-trend.

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Bottom line: The medium-term outlook remains unchanged with a break the 1.0777-1.0987 range needed for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the immediate advance may be vulnerable into the rang highs but ultimately we’re on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above the May low-day close 1.0831IF price is indeed heading higher. A breach / close above 1.1187 is needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside heading deeper into June. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.55 (39.17% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are1.42% higher than yesterday and 27.70% lower from last week
  • Short positions are12.51% higher than yesterday and 39.36% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 42% -17% 4%
Weekly 13% -18% -5%
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Key Euro / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Key Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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