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Oil Price Outlook: Crude Bears Beware- WTI Weekly Reversal Underway

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Bears Beware- WTI Weekly Reversal Underway

2020-04-03 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Crude Oil Technical Price Outlook: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

Oil prices are on the counter-offensive this week after collapsing more than 70% off the yearly / January high. A price rebound off downtrend support has WTI poised to close and outside-weekly reversal ahead of the New York close on Friday – is a low in place? While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the medium-term focus remains on a reaction at technical resistance just higher for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

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Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - CL Trade Outook - USOil Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In my previous OilWeekly Price Outlook we noted that the collapse in Crude was, “holding downtrend support,” at the 25% parallel of a broad descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2015 / 2018 highs. WTI tested this support slope for three weeks with price now poised to mark an outside weekly reversal off downtrend support.

Initial resistance now stands at 29.07-30.19 – a region defined by the 2016 low-week close and the 23.6% retracement. A breach above this zone would expose key resistance / medium-term bearish invalidation at 36.96-40.00- look for a more significant reaction there IF reached. A break / close below today’s low is needed to put the bears back in control with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support objectives at the 2001 low at 16.70 and the 1998 low / 1.618% ext at 10.35/70.

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Bottom line: Oil prices are attempting to close a weekly reversal off down-slope support and leaves the broader bearish outlook vulnerable in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops- be on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion ahead of the weekly open at 21.80 IF price is indeed heading higher, with a breach above 30.19 needed to fuel the next leg in this oil price recovery. I’ll publish an updated Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +3.70 (78.72% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 22.92% lower than yesterday and 0.75% lower from last week
  • Short positions are20.40% higher than yesterday and 36.38% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Oil - US Crude MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -1% 1%
Weekly -20% 21% -5%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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