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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Entering 6th Week– Breakout Levels

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Entering 6th Week– Breakout Levels

2020-07-16 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices are attempting to post a sixth consecutive weekly advance with XAU/USD up 0.38% to trade at 1805 in New York trade on Thursday. The rally takes price within striking distance of the next technical resistance hurdle just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that, “A close above 1765 is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable heading into next week with such a scenario exposing subsequent topside resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795.” XAU/USD closed above this threshold on Friday with the rally faltering just ahead of the 88.6% retracement of the decline off the record highs at 1821. Note the ongoing divergence in weekly momentum continues to threaten the advance as price probes fresh nine-year highs.

A topside breach / close above this threshold is needed to keep the long-bias viable towards the high-week close at 1856 and the record high-close at 1881- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Look for initial weekly support along the 2017 trendline (red parallel, currently ~1780s) backed by the April swing high at 1747. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to 1733.

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Bottom line: A six-week rally on building divergence has gold trading just below multi-year Fibonacci resistance. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stop– look for downside exhaustion ahead of 1747 IF price is indeed heading higher with a topside breach keeping the focus on objectives towards the record highs. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.10 (67.74% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 2.06% higher than yesterday and unchanged from last week
  • Short positions are 4.60% lower than yesterday and 14.01% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
Gold BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 7% 0%
Weekly -3% -2% -3%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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