Never miss a story from Michael Boutros

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Michael Boutros

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Gold prices are posed to snap a four-week winning streak with the precious metal down 0.33% to trade at 1283 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Weekly Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Weekly Price Chart

Notes:In my previous Gold Technical Outlook we noted that the price recovery was, “testing the first major test of confluence resistance just ahead of the 2018 open at 1302 – a close above this region is needed to keep the immediate advance viable. IF price is going to pullback- this would be the post.” Gold failed at slope resistance yet again this week with prices poised to mark the first weekly loss since mid-December.

Daily support rests at the confluence of the 52-week moving average and the 23.6% retracement of the August advance at 1266/67- a move below this threshold would risk a larger correction in price with broader bullish invalidation steady at 1236, “where the 200-week moving average and December 2017 low converge on channel support.” A breach above 1302 still needed to validate the breakout with such a scenario eyeing initial Fibonacci resistance at 1322.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:A near-term price consolidation looks to have broken late in the week and leaves the immediate risk lower while below pitchfork resistance. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a reaction down at the yearly open / monthly opening range. Ultimately, a larger set-back may offer more favorable long-entries closer to weekly support. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term trading levels.

Gold Trader Sentiment

IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +2.61 (72.3% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 13.6% lower than yesterday and 6.8% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Other Weekly Technical Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD Prepare for Next Big Moves as AUD/JPY May Reverse

British Pound Forecast:Taking a Post-Rally Breather

Equity Forecast: S&P 500 Upside Limited, DAX Makes Topside Breach

Crude Oil Forecast: Trading Higher Against 2019's Wall of Worry