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Price & Time: EUR/USD Resuming The Broader Trend?

Price & Time: EUR/USD Resuming The Broader Trend?

2014-10-22 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY still lacking upside momentum
  • GOLD overcomes key Gann resistance
  • Outside day reversal in the euro on Tuesday

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: EUR/USD Resuming The Broader Trend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has rallied steadily since closing on the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high around 105.80 last week
  • However, our near-term trend bias remains lower while below 107.45
  • A close under 105.90 is needed to set off a new leg lower in the pair
  • A turn window is eyed around the end of the week/early next week
  • A close back over 107.45 is required to re-focus our attention higher in USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 107.45.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*105.90

106.30

106.95

107.00

*107.45

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Resuming The Broader Trend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has traded steadily higher since finding support at the beginning of the month near 1180
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the metal while above 1213
  • The 50% retracement of the July/October decline near 1264 is the next upside pivot of note
  • An important turn window is eyed next week
  • A close under 1213 would turn us negative on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1213

1232

1245

1255

*1264

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Resuming The Broader Trend?

An outside day pattern in EUR/USD yesterday off key Gann resistance in the 1.2835 area has the market looking for an early resumption of the broader downtrend. Our work with cycles and other timing methods suggests that such an occurrence would be a bit ahead of schedule as a continuation of the current correction/consolidation into next week is the ideal scenario. Of course markets rarely give us ideal so we are open to an early downside resumption, but that said we really need to see support at 1.2605/1.2585 give way to confirm this more immediate negative view. A move back to 1.2785 would signal the euro remains in consolidation mode, but traction over 1.2835 is really required to force any sort of meaningful final squeeze higher in the exchange rate.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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