We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • I think we all do this on some level. Care to assist me in a similar campaign @tracyalloway? https://t.co/yS4jrJ2B8x
  • Tune in to @IlyaSpivak 's #webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for insight on the cross market weekly outlook. Register here: https://t.co/E213bTtq5C https://t.co/D5T3ErQYi5
  • Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura says a state of emergency is no longer needed in nay region of the country - BBG #Coronavirus #JPY
  • $gld prices may face heightened liquidation pressure as US-China tensions over Hong Kong heat up ahead of US GDP data amid the coronavirus pandemic. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/vmoJXC2KSm https://t.co/dNGB1d0T9C
  • Slightly risk-on start to the beginning of the week. #AUD up with APAC stocks and #SPX index futures, anti-risk #JPY and #USD broadly lower https://t.co/P07MrhWHPe
  • Market snapshot: US equity futures pointing higher while FX markets remain mixed
  • (Asia AM) The #SP500 shrugged off risk aversion to end last week higher, but upside momentum seems to be fading. US markets are offline today, raising the risk of volatility - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/05/24/SP-500-Struggling-at-Resistance-Volatility-Risk-Ahead-Elevated.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/RJXBa0tyS5
  • LIVE NOW: In this session, Strategist @DavidJSong will discuss trading strategies for the top event risk in the week ahead https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/175202251
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: In this session, Strategist @DavidJSong will discuss trading strategies for the top event risk in the week ahead https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/175202251
  • The possibility of a Covid-19 cure by year end keeps market sentiment high despite ongoing political tensions. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/6DIf6krA3E https://t.co/IxeRbjHpQm
Price & Time: Re-Test of the June Low in Store for Gold?

Price & Time: Re-Test of the June Low in Store for Gold?

2013-08-06 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

PT_g_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Re-Test of the June Low in Store for Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY reversed last week during a key cycle turn window off the 50% retracement of the June to July advance in the 97.60 area
  • Advance has so far been halted by the 61.8% retracement of the May to June decline near 100.00, but while over last week’s cyclical low our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the rate
  • The 100.00 level is now a key upside pivot with strength above this level now needed to signal the start of a more important push higher
  • Near-term cycle studies suggest Wednesday is a minor turn window
  • A close below 97.60 would undermine the positive cyclical picture and turn us negative on the exchange rate

Strategy: Like longs while over 97.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

97.20

*97.60

98.10

98.65

*99.95

USD/CHF:

PT_g_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Re-Test of the June Low in Store for Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF found support just below the .9245 6th square root progression of the year-to-date high during last week’s cycle turn window
  • Subsequent strength through the 1x2 Gann angle line has turned the near-term trend bias higher in USD/CHF
  • Advance has so far has been unimpressive and traction over the 61.8% retracement of June to July advance near .9365 is needed to trigger a more important run higher
  • Short cycles still look positive for another couple of days
  • Weakness below .9245 on a closing basis would undermine the burgeoning positive structure and turn us positive on the exchange rate

Strategy: Like the long side while over .9245.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

0.9205

*0.9245

0.9275

0.9310

*.9365

USD/CAD:

PT_g_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Re-Test of the June Low in Store for Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD has moved steadily higher since bottoming ahead of the 78.6% retracement of the June to July advance in the 1.0240 area during last week’s cycle turn window
  • Strength through 1.0315 has shifted our near-term trend bias to higher in Funds
  • The 2nd square root progression of the year’s high at 1.0405 is a clear upside pivot with strength through here required to trigger the next leg higher in the rate
  • Near-term focused time cycles suggest Wednesday is the next minor turn window
  • The 3rd square root progression of the year’s high near 1.0300 is immediate support, but only under 1.0240 alters the positive technical outlook and turns us negative on the rate

Strategy: Like the long side in Funds while over 1.0240.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0240

1.3000

1.0375

*1.0405

1.0430

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_g_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Re-Test of the June Low in Store for Gold?

XAU/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing at key symmetry in the 1348 area during last month’s important cycle turn window. The 2nd square root progression of last month’s high near 1280 has so far halted the decline and the how the metal reacts around this pivot over the next few days will likely determine whether a more important decline is in the offing. With the cyclical picture seemingly still negative for another couple of weeks a downside break is favored. At a minimum such a break should expose 1250/60. On the upside a move back through the 1st square root progression of the July high near 1317 would alleviate some of the downside pressure, but only over 1348 on a closing basis truly alters the negative technical structure and turns us positive on Gold.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.