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Price & Time: USD Trend Resumption

Price & Time: USD Trend Resumption

Kristian A. Kerr,

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/CHF:

PT_usd_trend_resum_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: USD Trend Resumption

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/CHF touched its highest level since mid-November late last week after closing over the .9325 61.8% retracement of the November to February decline

- Resistance has so far been found near the 94.55 88.6% retracement of that same move

- Bias is higher with a close over this level needed to setup a new push higher towards the 50% retracement of the 2012 range just under .9500

- Shorter-term time harmonics are positive over the next few days, with a medium-term turn window seen early next week

- A convergence of Gann lines near .9390 is interim support and only weakness below this level undermines the immediate positive tone in the pair

Strategy: Looking to buy the dollar against .9390.

NZD/USD:

PT_usd_trend_resum_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD Trend Resumption

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- Kiwi found support on Monday at the 88.6% retracement of the December to February advance and has recovered steadily higher over the past few days

- Bias is still lower while below the second square root progression from the year-to-date low and the 50% retracement of the most recent decline in the .8350 area

- A confluence of various retracements near .8285 is now key support with a break under this level needed to signal a broader downside resumption

- Near-term focused time cycle analysis is clearly negative over the next few days

- A close over the resistance at .8350 would turn us more positive on the pair

Strategy: Trailing stop was hit on the move through .8300 in our longstanding Kiwi short. Now looking to sell a break of .8285 with a stop just over .8355.

USD/CAD:

PT_usd_trend_resum_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD Trend Resumption

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- Funds broke through the 1.0275 78.6% retracement of the 2012 range last week and touched its highest level since late June

- Our focus is higher but a convergence of the 261.8% extension of the January decline and the 88.6% retracement of last year’s range in the 1.0340/50 area so far caps

- A clear break of this resistance zone is now need to signal a new thrust higher towards a convergence of a pitchfork line and the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high in the 1.0420/40 area

- Cyclical studies are mostly positive into early next week

- The 1.0275 Fibonacci convergence level is now immediate support, but only under a pitchfork line related to last year’s low near 1.0200 shifts our bias lower

Strategy: We are still long USD/CAD, but have raised the trailing stop to just under 1.0250.

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

PT_usd_trend_resum_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD Trend Resumption

NZD/USD has been trading very well from a cyclical perspective since peaking out during the Pi window last month. Shorter-term time harmonics related to Fibonacci and other mathematical relationships have turned negative on the pair and argue for weakness over the next few days. Early next week is then a medium-term time window where a more important counter-trend move could develop. Unexpected strength over the next few days over .8350 would signal a different cyclical dynamic is unfolding.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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