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S&P 500 at Cross-Roads as Prices Test Bias-Defining Support Level

S&P 500 at Cross-Roads as Prices Test Bias-Defining Support Level

2012-06-25 04:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

THE TAKEAWAY: The dominant directional bias for the S&P 500 hangs in the balance as bears challenge the threshold of a bullish chart formation completed last week.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting the neckline of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern at a falling trend line set from early May. The overall H&S setup remains intact for now, with a break below the trend line (now at 1324.30) needed to neutralize bullish cues. Such an outcome would initially expose the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1305.90. Near-term resistance lines up in the 1334.40-41.90 area.

SP_500_at_Cross-Roads_as_Prices_Test_Bias-Defining_Support_Level_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 at Cross-Roads as Prices Test Bias-Defining Support Level

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices completed a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 77.34, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for a bounce. Initial resistance lines up at 81.07, the 23.6% Fib, with a break higher exposing the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure.

SP_500_at_Cross-Roads_as_Prices_Test_Bias-Defining_Support_Level_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 at Cross-Roads as Prices Test Bias-Defining Support Level

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices found support at a rising trend line set from the mid-May swing low, a barrier reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1568.46. A bounce here sees initial resistance at 1585.42, the 38.2% expansion. Alternatively, a turn lower through support exposes the 61.8% level at 1551.50.

SP_500_at_Cross-Roads_as_Prices_Test_Bias-Defining_Support_Level_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 at Cross-Roads as Prices Test Bias-Defining Support Level

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices bounced from support at 10032 and launched higher, taking out resistance at 10144 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now target the 38.2% Fib at 10218. The 23.6% level has been recast as interim support.

SP_500_at_Cross-Roads_as_Prices_Test_Bias-Defining_Support_Level_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 at Cross-Roads as Prices Test Bias-Defining Support Level

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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