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THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the greenback is on the verge of staging a recovering from major support underpinning prices from late August 2011.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to consolidate between 1399.10 and 1409.00, the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci retracement levels. A break higher exposes the late March to early April swing top in the 1419.90-1424.90 area. Alternatively, a push through near-term support targets the 50% Fib at 1391.20.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Points_to_Bounce_From_Key_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Points to Bounce From Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices took out resistance in the 104.90-105.15 area marked by a former support as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to meet a falling trend line capping gains since late February. This barrier is reinforced by the 61.8% Fib at 106.27. A break above this barrier exposes the 76.4% at 107.67. The 104.90-105.15 area has been recast as support.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Points_to_Bounce_From_Key_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Points to Bounce From Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices took out the top of a falling channel set from early March, with the bulls now aiming to challenge resistance at 1680.00 and 1696.88 marked by key swing highs set on April 12 and March 27.” The channel top, now at 1654.93, is acting as near-term support.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Points_to_Bounce_From_Key_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Points to Bounce From Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above trend line support set from late July 2011, hinting a move higher is ahead. Confirmation of a reversal requires a daily close above the 9879-9906 area. Near-term support is now at 9819.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Points_to_Bounce_From_Key_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Points to Bounce From Key Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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