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US Dollar Technical Setup Hints Recovery Ahead, S&P 500 Aims Lower

US Dollar Technical Setup Hints Recovery Ahead, S&P 500 Aims Lower

2012-01-26 03:54:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAYUS Dollar technical positioning suggests the currency may be preparing to stage a recovery while the S&P 500 backpedals from resistance.

S&P 500 – Prices are rising to test the upper boundary of a rising channel established from late December, now at 1331.60, but negative RSI divergence warns that bullish momentum may be fading. A reversal lower that breaks resistance at 1307.10 exposes the 1285.90.

SP_500_Rally_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_Dollar_Back_at_Familiar_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Technical Setup Hints Recovery Ahead, S&P 500 Aims Lower

8hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Positioning is broadly unchanged from yesterday: Prices continue to consolidate above support at 97.70, with the first layer of resistance still at 101.28. A break lower exposes resistance-turned-support at the top of a falling channel set from mid-November, now at 96.37. Alternatively, a push higher initially targets the mid-November high at 103.35.

SP_500_Rally_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_Dollar_Back_at_Familiar_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Technical Setup Hints Recovery Ahead, S&P 500 Aims Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at 1677.05, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support stands at the bottom of a rising channel set from early January now at 1657.98, with a break below that exposing 1638.84.

SP_500_Rally_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_Dollar_Back_at_Familiar_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Technical Setup Hints Recovery Ahead, S&P 500 Aims Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices put in a bullish Inverted Hammer candlestick above support at 9823, the former neckline of an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial resistance stands at 9895, the midline and top of a falling channel in place since mid-December, with a break above that exposing the channel top at 9981.

SP_500_Rally_Vulnerable_to_Reversal_Dollar_Back_at_Familiar_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Technical Setup Hints Recovery Ahead, S&P 500 Aims Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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