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S&P 500 Rally Fails to Break Key Resistance, Double Top Still Possible

S&P 500 Rally Fails to Break Key Resistance, Double Top Still Possible

2012-01-11 03:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAYYesterday’s S&P 500 rally failed to break key resistance, hinting a near-term double top that marks the start of the next US Dollar advance remains possible.

S&P 500 – Prices nudged higher after four days of near-standstill but the bulls failed to overcome resistance at 1292.90, the October 27 high, meaning the possibility of a double top at this level remains a possibility. With that in mind, no confirmation of a bearish reversal is seen as yet. Initial support stands at 1265.30, while a daily close above 1292.90 exposes 1305.40.

SP_500_Rally_Fails_to_Break_Key_Resistance_Double_Top_Still_Possible_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Rally Fails to Break Key Resistance, Double Top Still Possible

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices remain locked between support at 101.28 and resistance at 103.35, the November 17 high. A downward breakout clears the way for a challenge of the 100.00 figure and 97.89. Alternatively, an upswing that takes out resistance on a daily closing basis initially exposes 106.05.”

SP_500_Rally_Fails_to_Break_Key_Resistance_Double_Top_Still_Possible_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Rally Fails to Break Key Resistance, Double Top Still Possible

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices closed narrowly above resistance at 1629.57, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move higher to challenge the 50% level at 1662.65 is ahead. The narrow margin of the breakout as well as the failure to overcome the December 21 high 1641.62 makes the bullish argument somewhat suspect however, hinting it may prove to be head-fake. A break back through support initially exposes 1609.05.

SP_500_Rally_Fails_to_Break_Key_Resistance_Double_Top_Still_Possible_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Rally Fails to Break Key Resistance, Double Top Still Possible

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR The greenback declined as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern at the top of a falling channel in place since mid-December. Initial support remains atthe channel’s midline, now at 9929, with a break below that exposing the formation’s bottom at 9839. Near-term resistance is at 10018, the channel top.

SP_500_Rally_Fails_to_Break_Key_Resistance_Double_Top_Still_Possible_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Rally Fails to Break Key Resistance, Double Top Still Possible

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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