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  • USD rallying today amid an otherwise bad day for 'risk FX' - and that's par for the course for August. Latest seasonality report: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2021/08/03/monthly-forex-seasonality-august-2021-great-for-gold-bad-for-risk-fx.html
  • GBP/USD is continuing its modest climb higher that began a fortnight ago, and could hit the psychologically important 1.40 level soon. Get your $GBP market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/p7X6envgGA https://t.co/N24E4oTDxs
  • EUR/USD Nosedives on Record US Services PMI, Clarida Remarks -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/08/04/eur-usd-nosedives-on-record-us-services-pmi-clarida-remarks.html $EURUSD $DXY #Forex
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.46% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.17% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.24% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/n6oAzR0k7T
  • The Clarida Curveball appears to have come in ~1 hour 20 minutes after the nasty ADP report (and five mins after I started the webinar) After ADP - $USD puts in bee-line to support, when testing bottom of the zone, Clarida's comments this is what's doing the driving https://t.co/svO0TPdYRV
  • Barring a US government shutdown and/or hijinks around the September/October debt ceiling, a December 2021 taper announcement followed by commencement in January 2022 is still likeliest path forward imo
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.92% FTSE 100: 0.32% France 40: 0.32% US 500: -0.30% Wall Street: -0.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/a2A4qPD7PQ
  • Fed's Clarida says "If my baseline outlook does materialize, then I could certainly see supporting announcing a reduction in the pace of our purchases later this year." That would fit with the taper timeline that markets have eyed for months Note: announcement ≠ start of taper https://t.co/MlHqicHHhB
  • RT @VPatelFX: ⚠️ It's not unusual for fringe FOMC members to have different views but can't recall a time when 3 senior Fed officials have…
  • $USD jumped off of the bottom of that range support and is already testing resistance next resistance 92.43-92.46 $DXY https://t.co/BYKipmNTtU https://t.co/kJggSshZLV
GBP/USD Choppy, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outperform  - US Market Open

GBP/USD Choppy, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outperform - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Analyst

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP/USD Choppy, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outperform

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

GBP: The Pound is broadly firmer this morning following the UK Supreme Court decision to rule that Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament was deemed unlawful. Parliament is set to recovene tomorrow, however, while a no-deal Brexit risk in the short-term has eased, this is yet another challenge to the PM’s authority, while the political uncertainty is set to continue. Ultimately a choppy reaction in the Pound, which is likely to remain volatile in the run up to the EU Summit on October 17-18. Failure to reach a palatable deal with the EU that will pass parliament will likely see an extension to Article 50 with a general election to follow.

AUD / NZD: High beta currencies underpinned on continued fresh trade optimism with the Australian Dollar given an added boost following less dovish than expected comments from RBA Governor Lowe, which in turn reigned in market pricing of an October rate cut (55% from 80%. Elsewhere, NZD traders will be focusing on the RBNZ rate decision. As it stands, markets are currently 22% priced in for a 25bps cut at the September meeting and 80% priced in for a November rate cut. However, commentary from RBNZ Governor Orr at last months Jackson Hole Symposium hinted that they were willing to wait-and-see following their surprise 50bps cut in August. The stance has also been reiterated from the RBNZ’s shadow board who had largely agreed that another rate cut is not required at this present stage. With this in mind, a neutral RBNZ could see a move lower in the cross, breaking below 1.0700. Of note, bearish positioning in NZD is at extreme levels, which in turn raises the risk of a sharp rally in the currency.

GBP/USD Choppy, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outperform  - US Market Open

Source: DailyFX

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

  1. Gold Price Eyes Fresh Higher High, Silver Price Retains Latest Rally” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Ready to Turn Lower?” by Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
  3. UK Supreme Courts Rules PM Johnson's Prorogation as Unlawful, GBP/USD Rise Reversed” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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