We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.14% Gold: -0.53% Silver: -0.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/EGNbk1OlkQ
  • RT @TradeFloorAudio: UK Bookmaker Paddy Power cuts the odds of a Conservative Party majority at upcoming #GE2019 from 4/7 to 4/9 .... It ha…
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.41% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0Z5fYqqkex
  • LIVE NOW: Join Market Analyst @DavidCottleFX for a look ahead at the major economic data which will drive Asia Pacific markets in the coming seven days. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/985612483?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.19% US 500: 0.17% Germany 30: 0.11% France 40: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/GLPREk9GG5
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy?Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/BCtPSUCBO9
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join Market Analyst @DavidCottleFX for a look ahead at the major economic data which will drive Asia Pacific markets in the coming seven days. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/985612483?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • European Opening Calls From IG: #FTSE 7302 -0.02% #DAX 13229 -0.10% #CAC 5936 -0.06% #AEX 599 +0.03% #MIB 23521 -0.29% #IBEX 9248 -0.14% #STOXX 3708 -0.09%
  • 🇨🇳 CNY Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (OCT), Actual: 7.4% Expected: N/A Previous: 3.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-18
  • Join @DavidCottleFX 's #webinar at 3:00 AM ET/8:00 AM GMT for your weekly update on the top Asia Pacific market drivers that traders should watch this week. Register here: https://t.co/HNf3Axw8s5 https://t.co/GukTnGJaxI
US Dollar Rally at Clear Risk as Key Events May Disappoint

US Dollar Rally at Clear Risk as Key Events May Disappoint

2014-05-30 22:41:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development
Share:
US Dollar Rally at Clear Risk as Key Events May Disappoint

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

The US Dollar rally showed signs of slowing as the DJ FXCM Dollar Index failed to hold multi-month highs. Traders look to a critical European Central Bank decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls report to decide direction in Dollar pairs through the week ahead.

Dollar gains could reverse as our Senior Strategist notes it is coming on an important cyclical turning window. And indeed, the Dollar has arguably lost a key source of support as US Government Bond yields tumble—limiting the appeal of betting on further Greenback gains.

It would be fitting if such a USD pullback occurred on the highly-anticipated ECB decision or the US NFPs labor data. What out of either event could realistically force the Greenback lower?

The weight of expectations threatens to push the US Dollar further off of recent peaks versus key counterparts. Bloomberg News surveys show that most expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, which has in turn helped push the Dollar higher versus the Euro. Yet any disappointment could easily force the Euro/USD exchange rate further off of multi-month lows.

Consensus forecasts for US NFPs employment figures paint a similarly optimistic picture for the US currency. Bloomberg News survey results predict the economy added 220k jobs in the month of May as the Unemployment rate stuck near multi-year lows. This would represent the fourth-consecutive month of at least 200k net jobs, and optimistic expectations leave ample room for disappointment.

Of course the ECB and NFPs could match market expectations and keep the Dollar rally alive. Yet it’s worth noting recent futures positioning data showed large speculators at their most bullish USD versus the Euro since the EURUSD set a key low in July, and positioning is likewise growing stretched in our retail trader sample.

In other words: beware of the potential for a short-term sentiment and price extreme across major US Dollar pairs. – DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.