We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.37% Silver: 0.22% Oil - US Crude: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/f9Rc9vvV2j
  • What is a currency war? What does it involve, and what “weapons” are commonly used? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/AVl8ddPJpZ https://t.co/yVo09vSev2
  • This is $EURUSD and the CME's Euro Volatility Index. How is volatility flagging before the ECB decision? Sure, they won't move, but there is a growing rift among the members https://t.co/DoI3JJNMjY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.71%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Q6sTGN1GB1
  • UK PM Johnson cancels session with Lawmaker Committee Chairs tomorrow morning $GBP $EUR #Brexit
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.08% Wall Street: 0.04% Germany 30: -0.02% France 40: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/imSAnlDz1L
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.672% 3-Year: -0.705% 5-Year: -0.623% 7-Year: -0.574% 10-Year: -0.395% 30-Year: 0.108%
  • At present, the Dow is sporting the smallest three-day ATR (average daily range) since July 30. Has good historical comparison to previous consolidation before reversal periods https://t.co/dSUOw5VVmB
  • RT @Nadex: Join @DailyFX, @IG_US, and us for an exclusive evening of in-depth analysis with the legendary technical investor John Bollinger…
  • The trio of safe-haven currencies continue to lead the way among the $EUR-crosses month-to-date: EUR/JPY is up by 2.48%; EUR/USD has added 1.98%; and EUR/CHF has gained 1.24%. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/3AHlQT4zwY https://t.co/yzDD8ujej9
GBP Fundamental Forecast: And The Brexit Band Played On

GBP Fundamental Forecast: And The Brexit Band Played On

2019-03-23 10:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

GBP

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points: Brexit

  • Brexit delayed until April 12 at least, but will anything change?
  • Sterling continues to absorb the blows, but for how long?
  • UK data this week has been positive.

The DailyFX Q1 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

This week the EU gave the UK further time to pass the Withdrawal Agreement – although they refused to make any concessions whatsoever to the bill – shifting the end date to May 22 if PM May gets the necessary votes in Parliament next week to pass her proposal. This remains unlikely at the current juncture and if PM May loses again, the UK would only have until April 12 to either suggest a new course of action, agree to a long extension or leave the EU. According to European Council President Donald Tusk ‘all options will remain open’ to the UK until April 12.

It is likely that over the next few days a variety of opinions and options will be aired but unless any of these options finds a consensus in the House of Commons, then a Hard Brexit option remains. While neither side wants this scenario, the odds on it happening will narrow if PM May fails in the House for a third time.

UK data prints have met or beaten expectations this week, with record high employment figures, solid wage growth, core inflation nudging 0.1% lower to 1.8% y/y, while UK retail sales surprised to the upside on Thursday. The UK economy remains stuck between record low unemployment, positive real wage growth and weak growth, a headache down the line for the Bank of England. Next week the only domestic data of note is the final look at UK Q4 GDP on Friday with a quarterly figure of 0.2% and an annual figure of 1.3% expected to be confirmed.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

Against this backdrop, GBPUSD is ending the week around 1.3190, just over one cent off its high print on Tuesday and around two cents higher than its low print on Thursday. Sterling volatility remains high and is expected to stay at these levels over the next few weeks.

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP? Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – March 22, 2019)

GBPUSD

IG Client Sentiment data show 56.4% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests that GBPUSD prices may fall. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get a stronger GBPUSD bearish trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Likely Loser In Ugly Contest With US Cousin

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/AUD/2019/03/22/Australian-Dollar-Likely-Loser-In-Ugly-Contest-With-US-Cousin.html

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.