News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: Tied to Biden Stimulus Bets, S&P 500, US Dollar, Treasuries $AUDUSD #SP500 #stimulusbill #USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/01/16/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-Tied-to-Biden-Stimulus-Bets-SP-500-US-Dollar-Treasuries.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/H7aus0Aljt
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how more here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/7zI3p6UNVs
  • Bank of Japan to mull widening of its long-term yield band -BBG $USDJPY
  • While the rise in longer-dated Treasury yields have been impressive as of late, March highs remain a key focus for resistance The medium-term uptrend remains intact, maintained by rising support from August Fading fiscal stimulus expectations (size) may sour yields ahead https://t.co/L3vBcF0ts7
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/vFJ8zmphMm
  • While the US Dollar has been holding its ground, its downside bias against the Singapore Dollar, New Taiwan Dollar Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah remains intact as it hovers at support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/p7gAztWuVG https://t.co/zB1pOS6U4D
  • The $VIX is now running 227 trading days above the 20 handle. It is also working its way quickly into a dead-end descending triangle. These don't really break lower... https://t.co/39Pr7YrQ08
  • WTI Crude amongst the many market participants taking a hit today, down almost 3% $WTI $USD https://t.co/eg2phm1wUO
  • The power of suggestion: even though the market recognized the mistake with mixing Tesla founder Musk's suggestion to use the Signal app with the stock SIGL, it is still trading >2,000% above pre-remark levels and maintains heavy volume. Us speculators are an interesting people
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.35% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.65% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.75% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.95% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6NZVebT00L
Australian Dollar Likely Loser In Ugly Contest With US Cousin

Australian Dollar Likely Loser In Ugly Contest With US Cousin

2019-03-22 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
AUDUSD

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • Interest rate differentials are back to the fore
  • The US Dollar has lost some support thanks the Federal Reserve’s latest commentary
  • But the Fed has also made investors aware that the likes of the Aussie have even less support

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar faces a very modest week of domestic economic data which will likely leave current themes to play out a little further.

The currency shared fully in the lift given to many US Dollar rivals when the Federal Reserve struck a dovish monetary policy tone last Wednesday. That central bank now only expects rates to rise once before the end of 2020 as a base case, and some futures markets doubt that we’ll see even that solitary move. No wonder the greenback slipped.

However, there was a little rethink shortly after the Fed shot its bolt. Markets came to the fully logical conclusion that, if the US is going to halt monetary tightening, then those who’ve yet to start surely won’t be doing so anytime soon. This category includes of course the Reserve Bank of Australia. Its own key short-term interest rate is stuck at the 1.50% record-low which has pertained since August 2016. Indeed, the RBA itself changed tack last month and admitted that more cuts could be needed. Before it had loudly trumpeted the view that the next move was likely to be a rise.

If the Fed’s announcement has turned developed market currency trading into a ‘least ugly’ tournament, then the US Dollar is at present the most likely winner simply because its base rates start the contest higher than most.

There was a little cloud cast over one of the Australian economy’s brightest spots last week. Official employment data showed a very modest increase in overall employment and a sharp-fall in full time hiring. Both were glossed over in the market by news that the official unemployment rate edged down in February below 5%, for the first time since 2011. Still, there’s no denying that this was a very mixed set of figures and a very far cry from the blockbuster releases we’ve become almost used to. This series can be volatile but the next release will bear close watching. After all, even strong employment growth has proven resolutely non-inflationary for Australia, part of the clear lack of pricing power which continues to weigh on Australian interest rates.

In the coming week then, the Aussie may well benefit as it often does from any gains in general market risk appetite. But with interest rate differentials back to the fore, its bulls may find little to celebrate. It’s a bearish call this week.

Looking for a technical perspective on the AUD? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

AUDUSD

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES