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British Pound May Consolidate After Falling to 10-Month Low

British Pound May Consolidate After Falling to 10-Month Low

2010-03-05 21:52:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Bank of England board member Andrew Sentance said that the economic recovery in Europe’s second largest economy is “still fragile” during an interview with the Hereford Times, and continued to see “a lot of uncertainties about economic prospects” as households face tightening credit conditions paired with the deterioration in the labor market. At the same time, Mr. Sentance noted that business sentiment “has improved greatly,” and expects the recovery to become “more firmly established” as the expansion in monetary and fiscal policy continues to feed through the real economy. As a result, the BoE is likely to hold a neutral policy stance going into the second-half of 2010, but dovish rhetoric from the MPC is likely to weigh on the exchange rate as investors scale back expectations for a rate hike later this year.

Nevertheless, a report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is anticipated to show UK home prices increase at an annual pace of 30% in February after rising 32% in the previous month, while the visible trade deficit is expected to narrow to GBP 7.000B from GBP7.278B in December. In addition, industrial outputs are projected to increase 0.3% in January, with manufacturing forecasted to expand for the third-consecutive month, and the data could push the exchange rate higher as it encourage an improved outlook for future growth. - DS

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