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Real Time News
  • 🇳🇱 Unemployment Rate (MAY) Actual: 3.3% Previous: 3.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 80.95%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/GlVeoFiw3x
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.54% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.23% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FYEpgj5pmU
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Unemployment Rate (MAY) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/pFtPrUj8i0
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.22% Germany 30: -0.27% Wall Street: -0.32% US 500: -0.37% FTSE 100: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/uNvnkxmWQi
  • AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long AUD/USD since Jun 04 when AUD/USD traded near 0.77. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to AUD/USD weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XvwQCrigtw
  • The Fed charged the Dollar more than it rocked risk assets - at least initially. Was there enough in this policy leader's shift to reverse course on deflating volatility and turnover? Loaded question, but I like ranges like $EURUSD more just in case. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/17/Dollar-and-Dow-Mark-Massive-Breaks-But-Are-There-Trends-Post-FOMC.html https://t.co/OvKBn6Qz1C
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tLJc1BUnTu
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.63% Silver: 0.59% Oil - US Crude: -0.74% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xfv1IST7Rv
US Dollar May Mount Swift Recovery as Jobs Data Bolsters Fed Outlook

US Dollar May Mount Swift Recovery as Jobs Data Bolsters Fed Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • All Eyes on US May’s US Employment Report into the Week-End
  • US Dollar to Rise if Payrolls Increase Tops Consensus Forecasts
  • High-Yield FX May Suffer Most if US Data Bolsters Fed Outlook

Currency markets are likely to look past a round of second-tier economic releases in European trading hours to focus on the much-anticipated US Employment data set. The report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 215,000 in May, marking a bit of a slowdown from April’s 288,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 6.4 percent after dropping to a four-year low of 6.3 percent in the prior months.

The US Dollar turned sharply yesterday in anticipation of the release, dropping 0.44 percent on average against its leading counterparts to produce the largest single-day decline in two months. Softer labor-market data threatens to cast doubt on continued normalization of Federal Reserve monetary policy, warning that the central bank may opt to slow the process of “tapering” QE asset purchases or delay subsequent interest rate hikes.

US economic news-flow has increasingly improved relative to expectations since early April however.That hints analysts are underestimating the vigor of recovery from the downturn in the first quarter, opening the door for upside surprises. Such a result is likely to bode well for the greenback, sending the benchmark unit higher against most of the majors. Higher-yielding FX may be particularly hurt in this scenario stimulus reduction bets weigh on broader risk appetite. We remain short AUDUSD.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAY)

46.7

-

45.9

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (MAY)

1283.9B

-

1282.8B

0:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

8.2%

-

8.4%

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (APR P)

106.6

106.2

107.1

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (APR P)

111.1

110.8

114.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Labor Costs (QoQ) (1Q)

-

0.9%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Labor Costs (YoY) (1Q)

-

2.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (APR)

15.1B

16.4B

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (APR)

15.6B

19.5B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Imports (MoM) (APR)

0.8%

-1.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Exports (MoM) (APR)

1.3%

-1.8%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

-0.5%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

2.7%

3.0%

Medium

6:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (MAY)

-

62.1B

Low

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (MAY)

-

438.9B

Medium

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.1%

Medium

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

0.0%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY)

0.2%

0.1%

Low

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production (YoY) (1Q)

-

0.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£, Mn) (APR)

-3150

-3190

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£, Mn) (APR)

-1500

-1284

Low

8:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£, Mn) (APR)

-8650

-8478

Low

8:30

GBP

BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (MAY)

-

2.8%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3277

1.3444

1.3552

1.3611

1.3719

1.3778

1.3945

GBP/USD

1.6585

1.6687

1.6754

1.6789

1.6856

1.6891

1.6993

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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